Tag: policy

Time for Africa to get Energy independence.

“Every day without reliable power translates into lost production, interrupted services, constrained investment, and reduced opportunity.” President Ramaphosa speaking at the energy indaba in March 2026,

 

Africa didn’t need another energy shock. But that’s exactly what the war in Iran has delivered. Not through missiles or troops, but through fuel prices, shipping delays, weakening currencies, and rising inflation.

Things were starting to look better for Africa. South Africa was showing signs of recovery. Nigeria and Ethiopia were pushing through reforms. Zambia and Ghana were emerging from debt restructuring, and Kenya had stabilised its macroeconomic position. On top of this, Africa was positioned to benefit from a new critical‑minerals boom. The IMF summed it up in the 2026 World Economic Outlook in January stating “Growth is expected to accelerate in sub-Saharan Africa… supported by macroeconomic stabilization and reform efforts in major economies.”

All of that has now been thrown into doubt by the crisis in Iran. The consistent thread across all of this is energy. Africa is a net petroleum importer with limited reserves. Any significant shock hits immediately.

This is the second significant energy shock in the last 5 years (the first being the Russian invasion of Ukraine). African policy makers, businesses, and households should by now have heard the message loud and clear, Africa needs energy independence. Without it the continent has little economic agency and is subject to the whims of decision making in Washington, Moscow, and Riyadh where we are not part of the conversation.

To create that independence, it will require a different approach, we don’t have the money for massive infrastructure investment thus, we must make it cheap and easy for businesses and households to build energy resilience.

Iran and its impact on Africa

No missiles have hit the continent but the war in Iran is a slow-motion disaster for Africa. Higher oil prices, disrupted shipping routes, and a strengthening dollar are feeding directly into inflation. That inflation is already squeezing households and businesses, and it will worsen if the conflict drags on.

Longer term the impacts on fertiliser availability and the inability for industry and businesses to import inputs and exporters to access crucial middle eastern markets and hubs will significantly undermine growth across the continent (Afriexim bank has a good primer here). Fuel prices are already increasing, this is coupled with weakening African currencies and a strengthening dollar, making fuel imports even more dear and amplifying the inflationary impac as all other dollar denominated imports (and debt payments) get more expensive.

The energy imperative

Energy is the lifeblood of modern livelihoods. Whether as electricity or fuel, it is the bedrock of agriculture, transport and logistics, mining. industry, services, and IT. It is a massive component of quality-of-life enabling people to get to work, access affordable food, do their homework in the evening. And Africa does not have enough of it with 600 million people without access to electricity accounting for 85% of the global population without access to electricity. On top of that Africa is dependent on imports for much of its energy needs, the continent imports about 75% of its refined fuel from the Middle East and India and that demand is set to grow.

Africa does not produce enough energy. Worse, it imports most of what it uses. That makes the continent a dependent customer on the global energy stage. Even worse we are last in line, behind Europe and Asia because we do not have their demand or purchasing power.

Two countries already show what energy independence can look like in practice: Nigeria and South Africa.

Shifting from dependence to independence

Africa needs energy, but we don’t have enough and are dependent on the rest of the world to get most of what we have. To get out of this conundrum we need to think differently and move fast. Luckily, we already have examples on the continent that point to plausible solutions.

Free the market – let people make their own energy.

Governments don’t need to solve this alone — and in many cases, they can’t. Most African energy systems are top-down government defined systems. The government decides import and fuel prices, the national electricity utility controls an ageing and inefficient grid. Making energy, expensive and inefficient which has knock on effects throughout the system. Africa does not have the money to make massive investments in oil and gas extraction, storage, refining, and pipelines that could decouple it from global supply and in any case that would take decades to complete. The solution is simple, allow households and industry to uncouple themselves from this system with a focus on renewables.

1.        Nigeria – from generator to solar

In Nigeria, the national grid is characterised by its failures to supply enough or reliable energy. As a result many households and businesses generate their own power, primarily through diesel generators, producing approximately 40,000MW of power. In recent years, this is shifting to solar, which is growing by 22% a year.

This transformation is driven by two things. First the high cost of diesel fuel and the cost of powering generators, solar is now 40% to 60% cheaper than running a diesel generator.  Second policy reforms namely The Electricity Act 2023, the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP) and “Embedded Generation” rules have provided incentives, tax breaks and feed-in tariffs designed to de-risk investment and allows states like Lagos to issue their own generation and distribution licenses, bypassing the national grid bottleneck. (you can read a great report on this from the energy think tank Enzi iJayo here)  

2.        South Africa – load shedding to load bearing.

In South Africa, load shedding had become a daily reality undermining business and quality of life. Realising that it could not fix the national utility, Eskom, quickly enough to stabilise supply and bring on board new supply the government embarked on a series of reforms.

The Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERAA) of 2024. These allow the private sector to build big (100mw +) power plants for their own use without complex licensing requirements, and the ability to sell that power onto the national grid. This has reduced demand on Eskom by 3%. In addition between 2023 and 2026 household rooftop solar has expanded by 215%, on sunny days this reduces demand on Eskom by 15%-20%. This has been enabled by waiving registration fees (reducing the cost of installation), and by allowing users to sell their excess power onto the grid and reduce their bills.

Simple and at scale

The Nigerian and South African examples show that with the right policies and incentives domestic energy production can grow at pace and scale. Today they both have plans to expand this, Nigeria has announced two massive solar assembly plants by both the public and private sectors. This will significantly reduce the cost of new solar accelerating its adoption. In South Africa the wholesale electricity market reforms have triggered investments in grid level solar, wind, and battery storage projects.

The Ethiopian example of the Grand Renaissance Dam shows that you can fund massive energy infrastructure projects without having to borrow. And they have coupled this with policies like banning the import of fossil fuel vehicles in order to reduce dependence on imports.

Time to move.

Africa’s policy makers are not known for moving at speed, but hopefully this latest crisis forces them to do so as it impacts their citizens wallets, votes, and likelihood to protest and throw them out. Africa’s future lies in its ability to produce its own energy. Not only reducing dependence on others, but decoupling the stability of our currencies, inflation and economic health on events and markets far outside our control.

This is not an impossible dream as some may have you believe. All it requires is breaking the old way of thinking and putting in place policies that allow businesses and households to take the lead in finding solutions for their energy needs, And coupling that with incentives that make it cheap for those solutions to be solar and wind, which Africa has in abundance and for free. This will happen much faster than waiting for governments to build power stations and transmission lines.

The war in Iran will cause serious pain, lets make it the last time that happens and start building out Africa’s energy independence. Energy crises have toppled governments before. Leaders who ignore this risk are gambling with inflation, currency stability, and social unrest.

Making it through the crisis: Africa’s crisis response policy

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece on what Africa can do to kickstart its economy and drive long term growth after the coronavirus crisis has ended. What’s becoming clear is that the crisis will be longer and deeper than many had first thought. This poses the question, what policies do we need to put in place so that when it ends, we are in a position to kickstart a recovery.

African governments do not have the financial firepower or operational capability that developed countries have deployed. But I do not believe that means we are hobbled. As policy responses around the world are showing, what was previously thought impossible, too expensive or too complex is doable. The same applies to Africa. To make it through the crisis we must abandon the art of the possible and attempt the impossible. This crisis presents critical obligations to African policymakers, that we must be bold and creative to save lives, livelihoods and possibly the state itself. This crisis also presents policymakers with an opportunity, to redefine what policy in Africa can do, particularly when health, wealth and well-being of its people are at its centre.

The Nature of the crisis

This crisis is unlike anything Africa has seen before. Its effects are multiple, simultaneous and intense.

First, this crisis will last longer than many of us thought. Until there is a widely available vaccine or cure, we will continue to see outbreaks, travel restrictions, social distancing, quarantines etc. In various parts of the world and Africa as governments try to avoid a second wave. Considering the staggered way in which the virus has spread across the world, it’s estimated that the most severe restrictions will continue for the next 3-6 months and various restrictions could remain in place for up to 18 months until medical solutions are widely available.

Economically the World Bank predicts the continent could lose between $37 billion and $79 billion in output and face a recession of –5.1% (negative 5.1%). Furthermore, agricultural production (the most important sector in terms of output and employment on the continent) could contract by between 2.6% and 7%. This is an economic disaster for the continent. The formal sector will be defined by falls in productivity, revenues and severe job losses. In the informal sector which accounts for 89% of employment on the continent, its traders, farmers, vendors, MSME’s, tradespeople who rely on daily incomes are facing disaster if those incomes are disrupted endangering their ability to afford food and shelter not just for them but also the people who rely on them.

This crisis will also stretch our healthcare systems, in many cases past their breaking points. Endangering, the lives of those with Covid-19 and the lives of those who need medical attention for things other than Covid-19 (expectant mothers, HIV-AIDS patients, cancer patients, malaria patients etc.).

Internationally, help (financial or technical) from the traditional donor/development aid community will not be as forthcoming, as it has been during previous crises, as they try to deal with the crises within their borders. Thus, Africa cannot rely on the international community as we have become accustomed to doing.

With all these effects, in responding to this crisis we have to have a core goal. That we have to keep our people fed, healthy and secure livelihoods as far as is possible. Which means designing and implementing a mechanism to enable people to keep themselves fed and secure. Providing lifelines to the informal and formal sectors, so that people have livelihoods to sustain themselves in the long run. Restructuring how our governments communicate with the public to ensure that the measures taken are as effective as possible and provide a foundation for re-forging our societies.

Keeping people fed and secure

This is probably the biggest headache facing African policymakers in their response to the crisis, and many will default to what they know, distributing foodstuffs. However, what we need in a situation like the current crisis where millions of people who were ok now fall into vulnerability, is a solution that is big, simple and fast. One solution that encapsulates all three is cash transfers. Give vulnerable populations money and trust them to know how best to use it. As I have previously written, cash transfers are effective, and people are rarely irresponsible with them. With innovations like mobile money which has permeated across much of the continent, it is possible to get money where it needs to go and to do it quickly. And, it avoids the mess of corruption and delays associated with government procurement. Finally, it puts money where the economy needs it. In the hands of consumers who buy their food and other essentials from the informal economy, keeping those value chains alive.

How do we pay for this? Simple, print money. The UK is doing this. Those afraid of inflation should note that the money would be replacing depleted economic activity, thus limiting the inflationary impact.

Reinforcing health systems

First, African countries need to devote more resources to public health. For decades we have let public health fall into a state of disrepair and underfunding. Over the short term, this needs to be remedied by immediately ramping up funding, and resourcing over the short term to fund the immediate Covid-19 response. As well as thinking through how to implement public health measures in an African context. Rather than lockdowns, how can we make markets which are critical nodes of the food system sanitary and credibly social distant? How do we make informal settlements where people share multiple spaces as safe as possible?

But it also represents an opportunity to start long term investment in community health. If we want to keep hospitals free to treat Covid-19 we need to deliver care to people in their communities. This means public health communication and education, provision of basic care at a grassroots level and investing in preventative infrastructure (sanitation, water, clean cooking etc). That could over the long-term form the basis of a viable universal healthcare system.

Paying for this will require shifting resources for normal noncritical spending (non-salary and critical operations) to the health systems, delaying or freezing development projects and tapping into capital markets (borrowing) where possible.

A lifeline to the economy

Through no fault of their own, businesses across the continent are suffering as demand falls, export markets go into lockdown, their supply chains are disrupted, and their consumers stay at home. To save jobs, livelihoods and in some cases whole industries. Many governments have already put in place tax holidays and encouraged banks to renegotiate loans with businesses. However, in a recession predicted to be deep, more is needed, and this could consist of several measures such as:

  • The utilisation of domestic private sector capacity by the government as part of the crisis response. Using streamlined public procurement to buy goods and services (e.g. Masks, logistics and transport, beds etc.) that are needed by the government to respond to the crisis. This will help keep some local businesses alive and build local capacity.
  • An SME loan program divided into two tranches. The first tranche would be given now, to keep SME’s alive and the second tranche would be given when the WHO declares the crisis over to enable SME’s to quickly restart their operations. This can be done by the banking sector backed by a guarantee given by the central bank in case of defaults. The guarantee would have 2 conditions: low-interest rates and a 6-12-month grace period before the loan payments start to give SME, breathing room. This would have the effect of giving SME’s working capital and keeping the credit system alive.
  • Safe business programs. Many businesses require social interaction such as open markets, salons & barbershops, restaurants bars and clubs, etc. We should be developing guidelines and rules for safe interactions in these businesses that integrate sanitary measures and social distancing (where possible) to enable these businesses to reopen as early as possible without endangering public health.
  • Utility bill and commercial rent holidays to ease pressure on businesses with reduced cash flows. Utility providers and commercial landlords can be provided with tax credits to offset the reduced revenue. I

Communicating with the public

I have written previously on the need for effective and persistent communications strategies to be built into policy design. This is critically important during a crisis, where not only do the public need to know what is happening, they need to buy into it, trust what their governments are saying and understand that it is being done for the public good. For that to happen governments have to change how they communicate with their publics from talking at them to engaging with them, this means:

  • Be honest. Now is not the time for bluster or false assertions. If governments lie and people die as a result, trust will be fundamentally broken, and people will be unwilling to listen again. Thus, governments must lay out the truth to their people, what this crisis will do to every one’s health, livelihoods and general welfare and why they are implementing exceptional measures.
  • Explain your thinking. Governments will be implementing measures that will affect people’s lives in a multitude of ways. As the heavy hand of government, intervenes in people’s lives in unprecedented ways, the government must explain why, what drove the thinking, and what they are hoping to achieve
  • Accept and respond to criticism. No policy response will be perfect. Being able to acknowledge where something has not gone as planned or was not implemented properly and communicating real action taken to fix it, will build trust and support.
  • Communicate often. This is a constantly evolving crisis; people need to be updated regularly. In times like these, there is no such thing as talking too little.
  • Engage across channels. To reach everyone, you must go where they are, which means going beyond traditional media onto social media, and breaking language barriers. If information is inaccessible, then it may as well not exist.

Communicating, honestly, effectively, and openly will help reshape the relationship that has been characterised by a lack of trust between opaque African governments and populaces that have long been indifferent to whatever pronouncements and declarations those governments make. Rebuilding trust can be the basis for rebuilding the sense of community and society that too many African countries have lost, reinforced by genuine efforts to assist people.

A pan-African response

Though the international community may be pre-occupied, it does not mean the pan-African community cannot respond. Though we may not have the money or the resources that the developed world can deploy, we can cooperate to ease the pain of the crisis. Critical areas of cooperation would be:

  • Sharing data and information on how the pandemic is evolving in each country. providing public health officials and policymakers valuable data on the epidemiology of the virus within similar demographics that can help every country fine-tune their response.
  • Sharing policy responses. What measures have implemented in other African states, how effective have they been, can they be adopted elsewhere.
  • Sharing resources. If the crisis has eased in one country but is ramping up in another, they could provide resources (equipment, personnel, money) to help in that fight.
  • Buy Africa first. Stimulating the African private sector by encouraging African governments to buy what they cannot find at home (e.g. if there is a food shortage) in other African countries before looking abroad.
  • Engage the world as one. While African states do not agree on everything, this crisis will bring us together on various things. One of the most important of those things is Debt. Africa needs debt relief to give it the fiscal space to pay for the virus response and a post-crisis stimulus. Rather than have each African country go to its bilateral and development partners on its own to beg for debt relief or a payment pause. The message will be much more powerful if the continent speaks and negotiates with one voice, increasing its bargaining power and the momentum behind the issue.

Unprecedented crisis – an unprecedented response

This crisis is unlike anything Africa has ever seen before. Even the Ebola crisis of 2014 did not threaten the whole continent and had significant international assistance. It is hampering our health systems, economies and socio-cultural way of doing things on a scale we have never had to deal with.

This is by no means a comprehensive look at the policies that can or should be implemented. The policy interventions I have presented are a few among many that a lot of talented and clever people are thinking of across the continent. What I have tried to lay out in this piece is that this dual health and economic crisis is a threat to us all. And responding to this crisis requires a multi-pronged approach that is big and bold. That will need African governments to get out of their comfort zones and implement measures such as cash transfers which they have termed too expensive or too hard,  shift money from cherished infrastructure and other projects to the health system, invest in the private sector especially SME’s in new ways and talk to the public in a more genuine way.

If we do not respond in a big and bold manner, many African nations will emerge from this crisis hobbled, suffering extended socio-economic aftereffects and much more likely to suffer civil and political unrest. If we can respond with boldness then we could lay the foundations for a genuine recovery after the crisis, a public health system that isn’t an oxymoron, a reset of the relationship between private enterprise the and public good and a  much more positive relationship between the government and its peoples. I’m hopeful that maybe, this time, African leaders and policymakers will recognise this crisis for the threat it is and start thinking big and acting boldly.

Good communication is good policy

In 2017, in his Jamhuri day (Kenya’s independence day) speech, President Kenyatta of Kenya announced his Big Four Agenda. To enhance the manufacturing sector, to build 500,000 affordable homes, to ensure all Kenyans are food secure and to build and deploy a universal health coverage (UHC) system to ensure all Kenyans have access to affordable health care. Since then technical committees have sat and designed the requisite policies, regulations and actions needed to make this a reality. However, in a recent conversation, I had with someone working on the UHC policy, I was struck when told that without better political support, and funding; UHC in Kenya would remain consigned to the realm of flowery speeches. A policy that could save millions of Kenyans misery and bankruptcy will die a slow death for lack of money and support.

Africa does not lack for good policy. Around the continent, there are reams of policy that could genuinely change people’s lives sitting on shelves in the offices of government departments, think-tanks, civil society groups and universities, all of them gathering dust. In the world of policy, good policy is often stopped by two things political reality and financial constraints. Ambitious policy rarely ever survives the gauntlet that those two constraints pose. In a previous post, I talked about reforms that would enable governments to better implement good and ambitious policy. In this post, I want to take a step back and examine how we can get good policy to the stage of implementation in the first place with proper funding commitment and political support built using effective and persistent communication

 

Embedding core policy support

Policy has to be sold. To the public, to those who will implement it, to experts, to civil society, to the media and even to digital influencers. This selling is done via communication with all those stakeholders. Crucially, this communication has to start before policy gets to the implementation phase. Public opinion has (as Samantha Power once put it) a circular problem. Circular, because public opinion is rarely roused on its own, it is usually provoked by public leadership (e.g. political or other community leaders making something an issue), and public leadership is usually itself provoked by public opinion (e.g. public outrage at a particular issue provoking a political response). Thus, when done properly, communicating policy is a journey. A journey that first builds a base of support for the ideas and goals behind the policy and how it is relevant and beneficial among key stakeholders. A presidential speech or two and some articles in the newspapers are not enough, you need to engage people who will form the core base of support in forums, spaces, and channels where they are comfortable and attentive.

Getting public support

Once you have that critical base of support you then need to sell your policies to the two most important groups of stakeholders; the public and people within government who have to implement it.

Effective broad public communication is not merely a matter of adverts or getting a popular musician or sportsman to tout a particular policy. It is a multi-channel and messenger affair. Rather than telling the public that some policy is good for them, you need to engage people, from the mass media right down to community forums and door to door campaigns. That way you build an understanding of the policy, its goals and benefits at an individual, community and mass level. By successfully selling a policy to the public, you can bypass the political viability problem. When people quote political viability as a problem, they are usually referring to the lack of political support for a particular policy. However, by building public support through smart and inclusive communications, you can create political viability through public pressure. And with political viability and support, you have the ability to get proper funding.

The people within the government are usually forgotten in policy advocacy campaigns, but it is crucial that you get the support of the people who will be implementing the policy. Do they understand it, do they understand the impact it will have on the lives of their fellow citizens, do they see what role they are playing in bringing those positive outcomes to life. If the people implementing the policy don’t buy into its chances of success diminish significantly. The people in government who are implementing the policy need to understand and back the policy because they, they are also the people who have to defend and sell those policies to the public and political policymakers and if they aren’t invested, then the investment of others likely won’t follow.

Communicating Policy Implementation and beyond

Getting support for a policy is not enough though. Communication does not stop at implementation. Rather communication is an essential element of implementation. Stakeholders and the wider public need to know and understand what is happening with a policy that they lent their support to, to get it off the ground. They need to understand what progress is being made, the successes, and achievements of the policy. Beyond keeping people up to date, this allows you to make mistakes, to withstand the inevitable missteps that happen in all complex programs. However, because you have been open and upfront with your stakeholders and the public about those mistakes and clearly communicated solutions for these problems, you will be in a much better position to recover from any issues with an understanding public willing to cut you some slack.

Communicating policy in Africa

African governments can be singularly terrible at communicating policy. Policy generally comes as a surprise, presented as a fait accompli something from on high that is good for development and thus good for you and you better not question it. Which ends up with people being suspicious about those policies, and the people who are charged with implementation see it as just another order they need to carry out (or look like they are carrying out as opposed to being invested in the policy and its success.

Policy does not sell itself, even if it is fantastic. It needs to be communicated to all the people that will be impacted by it. It’s an often-overlooked part of the policy process, especially in Africa. Around the continent, it’s not just Kenya attempting to implement some form of universal health coverage. South Africa is exploring plans, Lagos state is set to make it mandatory, Tanzania has a political commitment to do so. As Africa explores and tries to implement ambitious policies such as these, policymakers and governments need to understand that part of good policy is good communications. That through effective communication they can build broad effective support for their policies and in doing so create the political will that will give them the political and financial ability to actually implement them properly.

Welcome to Afriwonk – a blog about policy in Africa

Policy in Africa, Why?

You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness. In this case, it comes from nonconformity, the courage to turn your back on the old formulas, the courage to invent the future. It took the madmen of yesterday for us to be able to act with extreme clarity today. I want to be one of those madmen. We must dare to invent the future. – Thomas Sankara

The word ‘policy’ is immediately boring. It evokes images of long papers stating the obvious in as many ways as possible, civil servants labouring away writing those papers and announcements by ministers that are soon forgotten.

However, policy has real effects on peoples lives. Bad policy hurts people, almost all policy has winners and losers, good policy can transform lives and especially in Africa, most policy is never implemented properly. This is why I am writing a blog on policy in Africa there are some truly fantastic ideas out there, that could have a positive impact on peoples lives, there are bad policies which are disastrous and there is a lot of half baked policy that does a little of both. Most of it goes unnoticed by the wider public. I would like to shed some light on the world of policy in Africa, chart both the successes and failures and examine some of the ideas out there that could be transformative.

For too long the policy process in Africa has been obscured from the public and shaped by donors, the IMF, World Bank or foreign governments. I honestly believe that for truly transformative change to come to the continent we have to start shaping what our governments do ourselves. We have to throw out the conventional solutions and as Sankara said think “think with a certain amount of madness”. We need to come up with policies for Africa that fit the African context, and fix African problems. On this blog by looking at how policy succeeds and fails or taking a deeper look at new ideas I hope to make my small contribution to that, to get people thinking outside of a box that hasn’t worked as intended for half a century. Thabo Mbeki once talked about African solutions for African problems, I believe to come up with those solutions we first need to have African ideas.