Category: Foreign Policy

2023 from an African policy perspective: opportunities amidst global headwinds and risks.

There is an old joke about Russian history, that every chapter ends with the sentence “and then it got worse.” Its an apt joke when thinking back on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023. In large part because Russia making things worse has been a feature of the last 12 months and will continue to be so in 2023.

From an African perspective, 2022 was a tough year. Just as the world was opening up and getting control of the Coronavirus, Russia invaded Ukraine sparking off a geopolitical and energy crisis, stoking already rising inflation to alarming levels. This prompted western central banks to respond by raising interest rates and the value of the dollar soared, hurting Africa by increasing the cost of all imports, fuel and food included.

And then it got worse.

2023 will be another tough year in many respects. Inflation, energy turmoil, China’s economy will not prop up the global economic growth and, geopolitical competition between the US, China, and Russia will continue play out in Africa.

Thus, policy makers on the continent must navigate these global headwinds. However, as I have written about before, there is opportunity in crisis and if policy makers on the continent are brave enough and imaginative enough, a bleak global picture can be turned into one of green shoots for Africa.

The Economy – growth can be found

The economic challenge facing Africa this year is not to be envied. Inflation will continue to be a significant problem across most economies continuing to make food, fuel, electricity and other necessities more expensive straining households and businesses alike. Debt crises already in progress in Ghana and Zambia are likely to spread to other countries on the continent who have over borrowed and spent irresponsibly. Sluggish global growth (or recessions) will drag down growth on the continent. Add to this Africa’s two largest economies, Nigeria, and South Africa, will be focused on two general elections.

Thus, policy makers have two goals. First, to navigate a tough economic environment. This must involve blunting inflation through a combination of short-term interventions that protect citizens and business from the worst impact and long term strategies to fix structural issues that make Africa vulnerable to imported inflation (you can read a more detailed analysis here). Second is the debt problem, like Zambia, countries at risk of debt crises must proactively engage their creditors, and bond holders to get ahead of crises and maintain confidence in their economies and if possible, get some debt forgiven or terms changed to make their payback less burdensome. In addition long term debt frameworks should be put in place to end the cycle of debt accumulation, crises, begging, and forgiveness, otherwise, in another decade we will be back in the same place. Finally, the need to cut unnecessary spending and combat corruption is obvious but I will not spill any more ink on the subject.

The second economic imperative is to find growth, and this is where imagination and boldness is needed. If growth is not going to be driven by the global economy, borrowing or government spending we must find it with innovative policy home, domestically and regionally, and there are a number of strategies that can be employed.

  • On the regional front, this is the perfect opportunity to double down on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), to build continental trade links that can be alternative source of growth. If this is aligned with the strategic investments in areas like warehousing  intra-African trade could be significantly stimulated.
  • An area of untapped potential is tax reform. Our complex, badly policed tax systems leak revenue and offer opportunity for corruption. Reforming our tax systems and moving towards an African multinational tax consensus could unlock revenues for governments and unleash the potential of African business.
  • Reforming domestic credit policies to unlock lending to MSME’s and small farmers could unlock the significant potential of Africa’s small businesses and small farmers that could drive employment, business growth and agricultural productivity.
  • Finally, International capital markets will be distorted for some time with many unwilling to invest in Africa. It will thus be important to put in place policies that encourage domestic investors (e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, etc) to engage with and invest in African businesses and commodities.

Global economic conditions will be unfavourable for some time. However, I firmly believe that should not hold Africa back. With intelligent and creative economic policy, Africa can stoke growth in its domestic and regional economies.

Geopolitics – wary opportunity

This is a subject I have written on previously. The world is changing, the USA is more focused on competition with China and containing Russia, and this great power competition will be played out on the continent as well. The EU and Britain are concerned with solving domestic issues such as immigration and energy access and this will shape their approach to Africa. And there is rise of regional powers (India, Japan, Brazil, turkey, Australia, Saudi Arabia etc.)  who will all be interested in expanding their relationships with the continent.

From a geopolitical perspective, Africa first must be wary. During the cold war we became a playground for superpower competition and that cannot be allowed to happen again, African interests must come first, adventurism must be resisted.

However, this also opens opportunities. If we can understand the interests and goals of various geopolitical players, we can use that to our advantage where interests are aligned. For example:

  • As the US and West seeks to diversify its supply chains and sources of raw materials outside of China, Africa could use this to attract investment into alternative industrial supply chains in Africa, and better deals for raw materials especially the rare earths, cobalt, and lithium critical for electronics.
  • Deeper engagement with the middle powers and attracting their investment could give Africa an alternative source of investment outside of China and USA and dilute their influence.
  • Strategically leveraging the fifty-four votes at the UN and other global bodies could be used to put African voices in strategic places (the UN security council, G20, COP, IMF etc.) to help shape the global agenda.
  • Critical issues, like immigration in Europe or the need to offset carbon emission in the middle east or Australia can be used to leverage investment in critical areas on the continent. E.g., immigration can be stopped with job creation, or carbon emissions could be offset by green energy in Africa. Where can the funding for that come from?

2023 – tough but doable

2023 will be a tough year not just for Africa but the world. This is should not be an excuse for a lack of progress and development on the continent. We must use our own agency and through policy. With intelligent, forward looking and sometimes creative policy, we can achieve positive results despite an unfavourable global environment. In crisis and adversity there is opportunity, it is time for Africa to start taking advantage of those opportunities and 2023 is the perfect time to do so.

After Ukraine: Africa in a new world order

For the times they are a-changin’ – Bob Dylan

In 1956 Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt. Their goal was to regain control of the Suez Canal and to remove the Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, who had nationalised the Anglo-French owned Suez Canal Company, which administered the canal. However, pressure from the USA, USSR and UN led to the withdrawal of invading forces. More importantly the episode humiliated the British and French governments, it signalled the end of the era of the Western European powers as the worlds major powers directing global events and using gunboat diplomacy to get what they wanted and confirmed the Cold War powers the USA and USSR.

On February 24th Russia invaded the Ukraine, setting off the first large scale inter-state war in Europe since the end of World War 2 in 1945. Not only does this action break the post-war European security settlement, but the weak response of the West imposing piecemeal sanctions that have neither stopped or deterred Russia, like Suez in 1956, signals the end of the post-Cold war world dominated by the West. That while the USA and EU remain global military and economic powers, they are not, as George Bush once put it, “the deciders”.

A new world order is emerging, where there is no pre-eminent power like the USA, but one where there are two global powers (the USA and China), regional powers (Russia, India, UK, Japan, Brazil) and supra-state alliances like the EU all competing to satisfy their interests and goals. Where does Africa fit in this new world order? How does Africa position itself and work to ensure that its agenda is met and is Africa’s voice is heard on the world stage?

1.   What will this new world look like for Africa

Russia has shattered international norms that have existed since the end of Second World War and signalled the beginning of the post war settlement.

  • In the face of a much more assertive Russia the West, specifically the EU/NATO will itself have to be a lot more assertive and will look to match or outcompete Russia not just in Europe but across the globe including in Africa.
  • While the USA will still be a global superpower, it will not be the only one as it has been in the past. It clearly sees its main competitor as China, and while the main theatre of competition will be in the Pacific. The USA is already keen to compete with China in Africa where it sees China as having gained an advantage.
  • For China they will be looking to continue growing their influence and footprint on the continent especially in relation to the USA and Europeans.
  • In addition to the big 3 (USA, China and the EU) regional powers, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, Turkey and the Gulf States will all be looking to grow their influence on the continent.

What does this mean for Africa, what is this influence that these world and regional powers are looking for. As has always been the case, the world continues to covet Africa’s resources, the traditional resources of oil, gas, precious and industrial metals, but more than that Africa has the resources (rare earths, lithium etc,) that are needed for the green transition. With the worlds largest population of young people, Africa is also a critical market for the future and access to those markets is becoming increasingly important. In short, Africa is strategically and economically valuable and as a result in a multipolar world there are significant risks around how the rest of the world engages with Africa. However, if Africa rises to the challenge and is smart about how it navigates this new reality there is a significant opportunity reshape Africa’s influence and place in the world.

2.   Learn from the past, stand apart from the competition

During the Cold War when the USA and USSR were competing for global influence and Africa became a theatre for this competition. With the superpowers throwing their considerable weight behind various regimes to support their own strategic or ideological interests, despite those regimes being the opposite of the principles espoused by the superpowers. As result the West backed the apartheid regime in South Africa, and Mobutu in Zaire while the Soviet Union backed regimes like the Derg in Ethiopia, and both sides pursued proxy wars in the Congo, Angola, Algeria etc. making conflicts bloodier and more tragic than they otherwise would have been.

It is critical to avoid this happening again. Africa must be truly unaligned, which means having cordial and open relations with everyone but not being a formal ally of anyone beyond the Afro-Caribbean bloc that would put Africa in the cross hairs of the global powers. Not only will this maintain our neutrality when conflicts break out among the global powers, it will prevent Africa from again becoming a theatre for the proxy wars of the great powers, where African blood is spilt to achieve the strategic goals of foreign powers. Finally, true neutrality will enhance our voice on the global stage positioning the continent as an honest, neutral voice in global affairs, something that has had value throughout history.

3.   Strengthen African Multilateralism

In his speech at the UN Security Council after the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Kenyan Ambassador stated that “Multilateralism lies on its deathbed tonight. It has been assaulted today as it as it has been by other powerful states in the recent past.”. Between Trump and Russia’s recent actions, global multilateralism is in indeed on its deathbed. However, that does not mean African multilateralism cannot play a significant role. By African multilateralism, I mean a set of norms and ways of engaging with the outside world that are agreed upon through pan African institutions, namely the AU and ACFTA. African states will not agree on everything and have different priorities. If Mali prefers a Russian security alliance to a French one, that is their choice, if Djibouti chooses Chinese economic investment over American that is their decision. However, we should all be able to agree what the boundaries of acceptable behaviour from outside the continent are and a set of measures that should those boundaries be breached can be implemented with wide consensus. Much in the same way that ECOWAS takes measures when there is a coup in their region, the AU or CFTA could impose sanctions (e.g., restricting trade in critical goods) on the offending states.

Doing so would set a tone for how the world engages with Africa and impose consequences for those looking to turn back the clock and act in an “imperial” manner.

4.   Unite on core issues

Though not every African country will agree on anything there are some things that we can agree on such as:

  • The need to grow Intra-African trade and change the terms of African trade with the wider world.
  • The need to act on climate change and fund resilience, mitigation, and the green transition in Africa.
  • The need to change the international tax system to be fairer.

Around these core issues on which African states agree there is the opportunity to craft a common position and push that on the world stage as one. Building common cause with other nations to drive joint priorities. Focus on these core issues where global powers cannot play divide and rule would further entrench Africa’s position as a serious player on the global stage.

This time must be different

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the death knell of the Post-World War 2 and Post-Cold War settlement that has given the world an unprecedented period in which states rarely went to war with each other.

As the new multipolar world order emerges and takes shape, Africa cannot let what happened in the past happen again. We must make sure that Africa is not a venue for exploitation, extraction and proxy wars. This will require deliberate, smart, coordinated and flexible foreign policy from African states. Acting in concert where possible, and where not, within an agreed upon set of norms and practices. If we do so, Africa can ensure that not only does it navigate the new global reality but helps shape the terms of this new reality in are

Focus on FOCAC: what was missing.

Last week the triennial Forum On China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place Beijing. The summit came in the midst of growing questions (particularly from the western media, academia and governments) about China’s ‘debt diplomacy’ and pushback from China that the west is simply trying to paint a growing and beneficial relationship in a bad light. Debt diplomacy, simply put is the perception that China is using debt as a strategic tool to get strategic assets or trap developing nations desperate for investment (such as African states) in debt laden subservience to China (you can read this if you are interested in further exploring this line of thought). The summit also showed the growing disparity between the West’s diminishing clout in Africa and the growing influence and importance of China. While Angela Merkel, Theresa May who visited Africa, and Donald Trump (who was visited by President Kenyatta) made optimistic statements about being committed to investing in Africa, China pledged cold hard cash, 60 billion dollars to be exact, as the proof of its commitment.

As you will likely notice about both these narratives (debt diplomacy and China vs the West in Africa) is that they are driven by foreign (Chinese or western) concerns and interests. Africa is (worryingly like in the days of the cold war) a battleground for the interests and ambitions of two increasingly competitive power blocs. There is little concern given to the needs and aspirations of African’s, nor how the actions of China or the West can tie into development policy. I blame this on Africa’s leaders who have failed to properly articulate the concerns of African’s in the broader China-Africa relationship, and to strategically think about how to integrate and utilise Chinese investment and geopolitical policy into our own development policy. Secondly, in response to the renewed optimism at the money pledged by China, the devil is in the detail and we got very little of it, beyond speeches and headlines. Third, FOCAC did nothing about the image problem, of both African’s in China and the Chinese in Africa. While our leaders may talk about each other in glowing terms, how their respective peoples view each other and interact will define the relationship going into the future. Fourth, Africa’s debt is a problem and both Africa and China, if they are indeed sincere, need to come up with viable policies to ensure that Africa does not find itself in a debt trap again.

The recent FOCAC summit was notable just as much for what was missing as for what was said. The China-Africa relationship will be a defining feature of Africa in the 21st century, whether its positive will need African policy makers and political leaders to be more thoughtful about that relationship and the policies that actualise it.

1.  Speak up Mr President

49 African heads of state made their way to Beijing for FOCAC, more than went to the last US-Africa summit or TICAD (Japans equivalent of FOCAC) symbolically this just how important China is to Africa. This is not surprising; China has invested and is committing to invest vast sums of money in Africa. In addition, China is offering cooperation and assistance in several areas such as security and combating poaching. While it is not surprising it is also worrying. Worrying because there is no clear articulation of the African position from individual African nations or from regional or continental bodies. What are African countries looking to get out of China, what are Africa’s nations visions of development, and what do we see China’s role in it being, and what we see as a mutually beneficial relationship. African presidents in various forms gave the usual platitudes about the importance of investment and infrastructure, the value of Chinese partnership and their commitment to economic development. There was no clear articulation of the African perspective and this is a problem, because it means that Chinese interests and concerns are driving the relationship and even if there is no malice involved, a one-sided relationship is still detrimental. Even if Africa is the junior partner, a sufficiently articulate, determined and smart junior partner can play a large role in defining a relationship. That is what was missing at FOCAC from Africa’s leaders, a clear conception of a balanced Africa-China relationship, not just an acceptance of a lopsided China-Africa dynamic. What that looks like is up for debate, (I gave my ideas In a previous post), but without a vision we are lost and ripe for exploitation.

2.  The devil is in the details

60 billion dollars. That, amount slightly larger than the GDP of Kenya, will be the figure that defines FOCAC. That China has pledged 60 billion dollars of aid, concessional loans, credit lines, debt relief and grants to the African continent over the next 3 years, and that there will be no vanity projects paid for by that money. Beyond the, 60 billion there were also commitments around security assistance, climate change resilience, anti-poaching among others. However, as with any great promise the devil is in the details.

On the 60 billion dollars what’s needed is specifics of what China considers a concessional loan, what the conditions are for debt relief, the conditions for access to a credit line and the interest payment terms and periods for that credit and what, in the eyes of Beijing, constitutes a vanity project.

On the issue of security assistance. Is it training? More Chinese bases on the continent? Is it domestic surveillance and tracking technology or internet suppression tools (which should scare any African concerned with human rights).

Such, questions abound on a number of areas announced and committed to at FOCAC, unfortunately there are few policy papers, bi-lateral and multi-lateral agreements available to the public or being debated in parliaments around the continent. The devil is in the details and the devil cannot be seen. We have no idea what African leaders have committed in Beijing, thus there is no way for African’s to fully assess and appreciate the relationship with China.

3.  The image problem – race, rhinos and chopsticks

How do the Chinese (the people not the government) view African’s? Judging by the depictions of African’s and black people in Chinese popular media such as the widely watched lunar new year’s show, or the art show which compared black people to animals. It is clear that race is an issue. It is an issue that doesn’t just manifest itself in China but in Africa as well. Around the continent there are numerous instances of African workers on Chinese projects being treated unfairly and even cruelly (as recently came to light in Kenya), building a perception among many African’s that the Chinese are exploitative and disrespectful, and at times this has boiled over into protest .

Stereotypes, unfortunate interactions and cultural misunderstanding are a rather prominent feature of China – Africa relations when you look beyond the high-level government get-togethers. Rather than avoid the issue, issue hasty apologies or outright deny or rationalise the issue of negative perceptions, racism, cultural misunderstandings etc. between ordinary Chinese and African’s, governments on both sides should be attempting to address it head on. This could involve to building contacts that go beyond high-level summits and infrastructure projects. Create spaces where people can interact (such as university exchange programs), where African’s and the Chinese can learn about each other, their diverse histories, cultures, their common experiences of western imperialism, and the different experiences of life across both Africa and China. FOCAC could be the start of a broader relationship between China and Africa that isn’t just about government to government bi-lateral agreements, but a broader relationship between two peoples which could go a long way to providing the basis for a long term mutually beneficial relationship that can go beyond sovereign debt.

4.  The debt dilemma

Despite the Chinese contention that the debt diplomacy narrative is a western fiction meant to paint a negative picture of China to audiences around the world. The truth is that it is a problem. African countries are finding themselves once again straining under increasing debt pressure, and Chinese debt plays a significant role in that (links/graphics). For African nations there is clearly a need to make Chinese financing more sustainable, and unless China is as utterly cynical as former secretary of state Rex Tillerson suggested, then they too have an interest in coming up with ways to make Chinese financing more sustainable for African nations.

This is not something that must or should come from China. The first realisation that must happen in the finance ministries of Africa, is that China is not a benevolent Santa Claus, handing out wads of cash. Debts must eventually be repaid. Second, is coming up with a viable, mutually acceptable framework for financing going forward. This could include a set a of criteria that projects must meet before getting funding or the Chinese Foreign Ministry and EXIM bank working with the African Development Bank, Afriexim bank or the regional development banks to help African governments assess and structure loans to ensure their sustainability. These are just two ideas, fundamentally the point is that China and Africa are not locked into a debt trap path, and with some innovative policy the debt problem could be defused.

Rebalancing China-Africa

I have recently taken my own advice and been reading up Chinese history to gain a greater understanding of a truly extraordinary people. In doing so it is hard not to draw parallels between the past and the present. Around 2,100 years ago Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty established many of the routes and relationships that would come to known as the silk road. He did so with a mixture of diplomacy and conquest. At its height, China under the Han dynasty was trading with the Rome and Parthia to the west and numerous vassal states paid homage to the emperor. Today its President Xi (emperor in all but name) is, through a canny mix of diplomacy, ‘conquest by debt’ and the almighty dollar building a new silk road (it is no coincidence that the Chinese government itself drew explicit comparisons between the ancient silk road and the belt and road initiative). And it was not hard to see the (number) of African presidents in Beijing for FOCAC there to pay homage to the emperor of the rejuvenated 21st century middle kingdom.

China’s ambitions may not be as imperial as its history, however by looking at what was missing from FOCAC, it is clear that not only is the narrative of China in Africa skewed, the reality of the relationship is lopsided as well. This is not due to evil machinations from China. Rather it is due to a failure from African leaders to try and define that relationship beyond the headline figure of how much money Beijing is pledging to invest in the continent. Rebalancing that relationship will require African leaders to develop a vision of what a mutually beneficial relationship between their countries and China looks like. Doing that will require African leaders to develop a coherent vision of what their development goals and aspirations are based on those of their people (something I have talked about at greater length in this post). Once there is a vision it can be articulated, negotiated and integrated into a mutual and more equal relationship between the Peoples Republic of China and the many republics of Africa.

I do not subscribe to the western view that what we are seeing is a cynical 21st century imperialism from China. Neither do I ascribe to the view that China is a completely benign partner for Africa and is not pursuing its own strategic interests. What I am is an African, who wants to see our continent develop a mutually beneficial relationship with a remarkable nation, that is a world power and will likely be a superpower. Doing so requires being realistic about Africa’s relatively weak bargaining position, but it also demands vision and strategic thinking, which will form the basis of policies that will ensure that Africa does not find itself holding the short end of the stick again. I sincerely hope that African leaders and policymakers are not thinking about what happened in Beijing last week, but rather are thinking about what could happen at the next FOCAC in 2021.

 

African Foreign Policy: looking East with a strategy.

Africa should not just wait to be exploited or influenced. No. We should be part of the conversation. We should raise ourselves to a level where there are certain terms we dictate in the conversation because we have a lot to offer – Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda

Over the past couple of decades, the world has been changing. The extraordinary economic development of nations in Asia has seen the emergence of new powers, most notably China, who are now challenging the global hegemony of the West. Crucially, for Africa this has meant the emergence of new partners in trade, and development aid, which the African countries has been keen to take advantage of. However, the headlong rush for loans projects and deals is putting the continent in the awkward position of ever-deepening debt and obligations, without significant regard for the implications of this for the future of the continent or the motivations of the Asian powers. Making Africa’s relationships with China and India more advantageous for itself will require African countries to adopt a much more strategic and thoughtful approach towards its relationship with these powers building a partnership that can not only further the continent’s development but also help carve out a greater role for Africa on the world stage.

Understanding the East

To construct a coherent and beneficial foreign policy, you first have to understand the motivations and history of the nations that you will be dealing with, and there are two key things that can help African policy makers understand the intentions and motivations of the rising Eastern powers to Africa.

The first is their history. Asia has its own history of colonialism (such as the British Raj in India) and western domination (e.g. the century of humiliation in China), this gives them a far better understanding of Africa’s own history as well as a much healthier respect for sovereignty and an aversion to neo-colonial interference in the domestic affairs of others. This has led to much more cooperative relationship with Africa so far. Unlike Western states China does not impose programs or projects in the name of development, rather African states go to them with requests and they consider them. This gives African states agency, a voice in development partnerships and this is vitally important as it gives Africa the ability to determine its fate.

The second key issue is their needs. China, India, and the other rising economies of the east need resources to fuel their economies, markets to sell their products to, transport routes to move their products along and diplomatic partners who will help them shift the global balance of power. Thus, they need Africa. And Africa needs the development funding, markets and the diplomatic support of the rising powers. Mutual needs that could form the basis of a mutually beneficial partnership.

Because understanding East is at the core of developing a coherent foreign policy, Africa will need policy makers, specifically foreign policy experts who understand the East. To that end African governments need to make the effort to educate and train a new cohort of Asia specialists. People who will learn the languages, history, politics, culture and customs of the rising powers in the East and provide the continents leaders and decision makers with the expertise to craft policy and negotiators who will understand their counterparts.

What should African countries be looking for?

The second aspect of constructing an effective foreign policy is defining your own strategic interests, which begs the question what are Africa’s strategic interests? I would put them in two broad categories. Development and gaining a greater voice for Africa on the global stage.

In terms of development, Africa’s needs are pretty clear-cut. The first is funding for expensive items such as infrastructure, which luckily China and others have proven willing to fund. In this regard, the onus is on African states to use the funding prudently, picking the right projects that will have a beneficial developmental return rather than vanity projects such as presidential palaces or Parliament buildings. In other words, African states must strategically choose the projects that will have the biggest bang for the borrowed buck.

The second need under Africa’s development interest is investment in its economies, where African states must think beyond resource extraction and seek to attract investment in areas of the economy that will further industrialisation and development such as industrial, and generic drug manufacturing. In short investment in areas that will create jobs and provide a base for future economic growth.

The third developmental need that Africa must fulfill is market access. Asian markets offer an unparalleled opportunity for African products, which we already export such as agricultural produce. Opening agricultural markets in Asia, would provide a significant boost for the agricultural sector which employs the most people on the continent.

The fianl area of strategic interest for Africa is gaining a greater role on the world stage. A globalised world faces global challenges, such as climate change, economic crises, insecurity and trade issues. All these affect Africa, sometimes disproportionately so, yet the continent has little diplomatic clout with which to help shape global responses to these issues. In a previous post I outlined how, by working together African states could take advantage of the West’s current state to change the status quo to become a more consequential player on the global stage. The rising powers of the East are also challenging Western hegemony, and they need international partners to do so. African states acting as a collective could be those partners, providing vital votes in the UN and other international fora and enacting policies that help further this agenda. In return for their support African states would require that key areas of interest to them such as changing the international trade and tax regime and mitigating against the consequences of climate change be placed on the global agenda with the backing of the Eastern powers.

Strategic partners and benefits from the east

The emergence of new powers from the East is changing the global landscape. Unlike much of the current commentary I do not see a new set of powers involved in a new scramble for Africa, I see opportunity. The opportunity to partner with them to the benefit of the continent. However, this will require strategic thinking from African policymakers rather than the opportunism we have seen when African presidents troop to Beijing or New Delhi to get funding for their pet projects.

Strategic thinking requires that African leaders and policy makers understand the interests of the emerging powers as well as their own, and use those to craft a foreign policy that would help create a mutually beneficial relationship between Africa and the rising East. A relationship that would help fund and drive development on the continent and finally give it a meaningful voice on the world stage, while providing the eastern powers with the resources, markets and diplomatic allies they need. With strategic thinking behind a smart foreign policy Africa need not be pawns of the West or the East.

African foreign policy: looking west together

It is clear that we must find an African solution to our problems, and that this can only be found in African unity. Divided we are weak; united, Africa could become one of the greatest forces for good in the world. – Kwame Nkrumah

Africa’s history with the West (when I refer to the west I am referring to Europe and the USA) is a tortured one. Slavery, colonialism, neo-colonialism, Cold War proxy conflicts all colour a set of relationships where the West still holds the upper hand. Whether it is trade, security, or healthcare policy, through aid, loans, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO Africa still gets raw deal on the international stage.

The West however, is in a peculiar moment, both Europe and America are turning more insular. In America this is embodied by Trumps ‘America First’ policies which are alienating allies and narrowing American interests and engagement around the world. Sec. Tillerson’s recent trip to Africa was centred on security and criticism of China, but unlike previous administrations there was no Power Africa or PEPFAR (The President’s Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) nor much talk about democracy or development, clearly the US agenda on the continent has narrowed. Europe is grappling with Brexit, populist right-wing politics, holding the EU together, a retreating America and a resurgent Russia. Their major engagement on the continent also centres around security with the addition of stemming the flow of migrants. Some in foreign policy circles see this shift inwards from the west as a problem for the continent. That without western money and support the war on terror will lag, aid and development funding will shrink and advocacy for democracy and human rights will be blunted. However, I see this as an opportunity, the perfect time for Africa to start playing a greater role on the world stage and pursuing its key interests. Africa can only do this if it works together, no one African country has the clout to be a player on the world stage but acting in concert as a continent Africa can make real changes to the terms on which the rest of the world deals with it and benefit people around the continent.

Too small to matter

Sub-Saharan Africa has a combined GDP of $US 1.5 trillion[1], which may seem large but is less than half of the US$ 3.9 trillion[2] spent by the US government last year. The largest economy in Africa is that of Nigeria with a GDP of US$ 404 billion[3], the most valuable company in the world is Apple with a stock valuation of over US$ 900 billion[4]. I cite these figures to illustrate a point, individually on the world stage African countries are economic rounding errors, Africa is largely talked in terms of natural resources or as a market with potential. The fundamental issue with this is that African economies operate in a world where the rules of the game are still dominated by Western nations and institutions. Trade rules are governed by the WTO, banking rules by western regulators, investment treaties are lopsided against developing nations, and development spending and their associated policies conform to priorities and ideals of the states that fund institutions like the World Bank. That African nations operate at a disadvantage on the world stage is not news, the key issue is what policies can African nations adopt to rectify this.

A united front: trade, tax and investment

While Africa is currently a bit more than just a drop in the ocean in terms of economic size, the continents GDP is projected to grow to approx. US$ 30 trillion[5] over the next 40 years and Africa will matter. However, the continent cannot afford to wait that long, the lopsided terms investment with which Africa deals with the west will continue to siphon off much-needed income and asset ownership off the continent, and trade rules continue to limit policy options (such as protecting infant industries) for African governments. Individually African nations have no hope of changing the status quo, as a continent with a smart policy approach at a time where western engagement in the world is limited by their own domestic focus, things can start to change.

Getting African countries to act together is a well-known headache. Africa has for over fifty years heard big talk from leaders on broad pan-African cooperation, numerous regional and trade blocs and the OAU and AU with ambitious agendas, though they never seem to get too far. In my view this is because African leaders have bitten off more than they are willing to chew with ambitious programs which have neither the political support, funding or organisational capacity to succeed. Rather than overambitious agendas, it may be more productive if African countries coalesce around a defined set of issues which are cross cutting and beneficial to all, making it easier to form and maintain a joint agenda. When it comes to a prospective joint African foreign policy to the west there are 3 issues which cut across all countries and which they could stand to benefit from; trade, taxes and investment treaties.

Trade, taxes and investment treaties.

Trade – unfair terms of trade faced by African countries, taxes – the inability to tax profits made in Africa and investment treaties which unfairly disadvantage African states in international arbitration and de-emphasize the link between FDI and development. These may seem narrowly economic and non-people or development focused agenda, however these issues have real impacts on people’s lives and livelihoods. Unfair terms of trade put African farmers and businesses at a disadvantage and restrict the policies that government can employ to support private sector growth. The ability of global corporations to avoid and transfer taxes off the continent means Africa loses out on more than US$ 50 billion[6] a year in tax revenue. If that were an African economy, it would be the 10th largest on the continent. Bilateral investment treaties which are an agreement establishing the terms and conditions for private investment by nationals and companies of one state in another state, protect the investments of foreign companies from what they see as unpredictable local courts and politics, forcing disputes to be settled in international arbitration centres which usually rule in favour of the investor over other concerns such as development, the environment or labour rights.

Why these three issues? First, these are three issues upon which the West is still the most influential, if we can force changes in western policy it can change the way others around the world and key institutions engage with Africa. Secondly these are three issues which can be connected to wider and more pressing concerns that the West has around security and migration. With better terms of trade and fairer investment, Africa has a much better chance at creating more and better jobs, governments will have more development policies open to them, and more revenue will allow governments to invest more in job creation, and anti-terrorism initiatives. Third, with tax evasion a priority even in the West making tax evasion in Africa part of the narrative is not an impossibility. Finally, this set of issues is narrow enough and beneficial enough to most African states that a coherent negotiating position can be built out of it.

So, what exactly is it that Africa should be aiming for with this new focused foreign policy. On trade the goal is twofold, first shielding African farmers from the hefty agricultural subsidies that western farmers get and allows them to dump cheap produce on the continent and second is loosening the rules that stop African nations from adopting industrial policies such as infant industry protection and product imitation that both the West and East Asia used. On taxes, the goal is to tax profits where they are made with the goal of ensuring that money made on the continent pays its fair share. On the investment treaties it would be impossible to change them whole sale rather the goal would be to insert clauses that make protection of the environment, labour and development into the body of the treaties rather than just as principles in the preamble.

To achieve these goals African countries would have to present a united front, combining their influence, negotiating teams and knowledge to match those of western nations. Crafting and deploying public narratives in Africa (that together they are fighting to free the continent from restrictions and better the lives of African citizens) and in the West (that doing this wont cost strained public finances anything and has the potential to stop the migrants and contain the security threat).

For too long African foreign policy has either been a tool for the West or the weak entreaties of states wielding no influence. The West is weaker and less united than it has since at least the 1930s, facing challenges externally while dealing with internally divisive politics and social cleavages. This is the perfect time for Africa to start changing the status quo, to start changing the terms on which the West sees and deals with Africa. To do so Africa must look West but do so together, around a common set of focused objectives that everyone can rally around and that would resonate with the wider public at home and abroad. Even if only half the agenda succeeds it would be a victory for the continent and the first step towards an African foreign policy agenda finally free from its western past.

 

 

 

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=ZG

[2] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52408

[3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=NG

[4] https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-apple-stocks/apple-market-value-we-may-need-a-bigger-chart-idUKKBN1D20BQ

[5] http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2013/12/05/african-wealth-will-double-every-decade-for-generations-to-come/

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/feb/02/africa-tax-avoidance-money-laundering-illicit-financial-flows