Tag: africa

Where next for Africa: a new vision for new development policy

As Africa continues to battle the public health crisis and the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, I have been amazed, befuddled and despondent all at the same time at the responses we have seen. How African medical professions have responded and coordinated with resources and budgets that are tiny in comparison to their international counterparts. How nations like Togo have moved to cushion their citizens and the ingenuity and innovation shown by individuals and companies have all given me hope. The hope that we have the imagination, drive, and generosity to confront and overcome any challenge. However, the police brutality and human rights abuses and in some cases the outright denial of the virus by some has also given me pause for thought and reminded us how easy it is for our demons to take advantage of a crisis.  

Like many, in both my work and my writing I have been preoccupied with, as Dr King once put it “the fierce urgency of now”. How do we stop the virus, protect livelihoods, and reignite our economies? These are all valid concerns that deserve significant thought and effort. However, it strikes me that we also could and should be thinking beyond the pandemic. Crafting a vision for our continent that takes advantage of the extraordinary opportunity before us.  

The global pandemic has broken norms, systems, and preconceptions, which had limited the range of possible actions and policies we were able to pursue. Out of crisis comes opportunity. 70 years ago, Europe used the devastation of a world war to remake itself as a bastion of social democracy and regional cooperation. That required vision. People who recognised that despite the devastation, there was an opportunity to break with the past and reimagine what Europe could be. And went on to sell those visions to politicians, and people to create a shared vision that could be worked towards. Today the member states of the EU may squabble, but they do not plunge into periodic globally destructive wars and their citizens enjoy a near border-less continent with broad strong social safety nets. 

What is our vision for our countries, regions, and continent? What can we rally around, work towards and achieve for us and our children? There is an opportunity to build a better Africa out of this global disaster and we must seize it.  

The system is broken, and the opportunity is open 

The global Coronavirus pandemic has fundamentally broken or changed a number of aspects of global politics, economics, and policy norms that Africa can take advantage of.  

1. Capitalism is being questioned  

Markets are powerful things that can do a lot of good. However, this pandemic has reminded us that when markets are skewed and inequalities exist those will be amplified by crisis, and, more fundamentally that markets cannot do everything. Public goods and services, like public health, cannot be privatised and subjected to market efficiencies without consequence. Markets must have limits. Out of their failure during this crisis, we can remake them, to be fairer and draw boundaries around where the logic of markets ends and the public good takes precedence and we can remake the social contract to have fair markets and strong public services reinforcing each other.  

2. Social safety nets are possible.  

Before the crisis things like basic income, housing for all, or UHC were all dismissed as too expensive, too unwieldy (especially for African governments) and potentially undermining hard work and personal responsibility. In a crisis that was no one’s fault, we have seen governments design and deploy large scale social safety nets like cash transfer programs and rapidly expand public health systems to protect the most vulnerable and deal with the crisis. This is can also be a reality beyond the pandemic, Basic incomes and universal health coverage can be done and will be powerful tools for ending poverty.  

3. We can make things  

The pandemic disrupted global supply chains and across the continent things that were once easy to import suddenly had to be made here. Lo and behold we have discovered that we can make things like Personal Protective Equipment, Ventilators and even our own tests. If we can make things, we must make sure we never end up in a situation where we cannot produce the medicines and medical supplies we need, where we cannot supply our construction industries or stock our shop shelves. In short, there is an opportunity to rethink our industrial policies (as I have previously written about) around industries and businesses that now recognise the need for resilient local supply chains.  

4. Corporate tax is cool again  

With all the government spending that is going on around the world, it will eventually have to be paid for somehow, and there are few better sources of revenue than the multinationals adept at gaming the system. As countries around the world clamp down on tax avoidance and evasion Africa can do the same. Reshaping its tax systems (as I have written about previously here) to tax profits where they are made. An Africa that can replace aid and debt with sustainable revenue is an Africa with her destiny in her own hands.  

5. Global political space 

Global geopolitics, for so long defined and defended by the USA is fragmenting. With the USA becoming more insular, China on the rise but untrusted, a Europe busy trying to hold itself together, Africa has an opportunity. To reject the notion that we are a playground for global power games and redefine ourselves as a leader on issues like climate change, tax and trade that have for so long befuddled others and negatively affected Africa. Even forge a new alliance with emerging and middle powers around the world who do not hold ambitions of domination but of shared prosperity and calm. 

6. We are young and hungry  

Millennials around the world are despondent cohort, our working lives defined by recessions, pandemics and polarising politics. However, in Africa, this is not necessarily the case. I am constantly amazed by the determination and refusal to give up that the continents young people display. Young African’s are inventing, innovating, and breaking barriers in culture, business, science, and politics. Rather than being depressed like our western counterparts we can be Generation Hope. We must harness the hustle, embrace the creativity, and nurture the deep yearning for a better tomorrow. A crisis of the magnitude we are experiencing now opens the door for us to experiment, to leap into the unknown led by a generation of hope.  

That vision thing  

In these opportunities, brought about by an unprecedented crisis, I see the space to construct a new development vision for our continent. A vision anchored in the dignity of our people. A vision that looks to achieve our own moon shots of ending poverty, disease, and desperation, where our fates are decided in our capitals rather than those in foreign lands. And where prosperity Is not built by climbing over the backs of others but through our innovation and drive that allows us to stand on the shoulders of each other.  

My writing usually addresses dry development policy subjects like budgets, trade, and labour policy, but fundamentally development policy is anchored in a vision of a better future. For the last 30 or so years, those visions in Africa have been stunted by uninspiring inhuman aims such as achieving middle–income status or industrialisation. The pandemic allows us to once again centre our development visions on the dreams of our people. Visions that we can identify with, rally around, work towards together and proudly proclaim our individual roles however small in achieving those goals.  

Without an underlying inspiring vision, our development policy is lost. It is misdirected into white elephant projects, filled with other people’s priorities, and spelled out in consultant gobbledygook and buzzwords. The crisis of the pandemic offers an opportunity to reclaim and reframe Africa’s development vision, let us seize it.  

Africanising Elections

“There is nothing more dangerous than to build a society with a large segment of people in that society who feel that they have no stake in it; who feel that they have nothing to lose. People who have a stake in their society, protect that society, but when they don’t have it, they unconsciously want to destroy it.” – Martin Luther King Jr.

As a Kenyan, every time I watch our chaotic, polarising, sometimes farcical elections, which usually end up with the same cast of politicians with their tired approaches to development in charge. I ask the same question, I saw in a newspaper cartoon, several years ago. Is democracy bad for Africa or are Africans bad for democracy?

The more I ponder the question the more I realise that the answer is neither, but rather if African democracy is flawed, it is because it isn’t African enough. In a previous post, I wrote about how the argument that democracy does not deliver development is wrong, and that we need to think of democracy as not just elections, but broad and continuous participation in governance by citizens. In this post, I want to address the first part of that argument. Elections are not democracy, but they crucial pillar of democracy, the ultimate decision-makers in our governments are chosen through this process. If Africa is to develop and craft courageous new policy approaches to the challenges of the 21st Century it must solve its leadership problem, and that starts with elections.

Changing how we vote and what we vote for may not only help make African democracy more relevant to the African context but by making representation more diverse we can elect the leadership we need and ensure that all Africans feel like they have a stake in their democracies. Many African states have focused on reforms to other parts of the democratic infrastructure such as separation of powers, an independent judiciary and devolving power away from central authorities. These areas of reform are vitally important and must continue, however, if we do not address our electoral infrastructure the whole democratic system will be fundamentally weak and susceptible to the strongmen, dictators, and tyrants that we need to consign to the dustbin of history.

The problem with African elections

Liberal democracy has its roots in the history of the West. The Athenian idea was that citizens (men at the time) should elect their leaders. The innovation of the Romans separated and limited the powers of the leaders to prevent tyranny. The Magna Carta of England made the king a subject of the law rather than the other way around, and so on. The history of the West is in the DNA of democracy and it is a system which Africa inherited as it shed colonialism and that was pushed by the western powers in the 1990s as many African states were encouraged to make democratic reforms. And, many did so, holding elections to determine who will be running the country.

The problem is, that history and the type of elections they bequeathed, namely winner take all elections are not entirely relevant to African states. Winner takes all elections have a number of negative impacts.

First off because only one man can win (it is unfortunately usually a man) the stakes are so high that people are willing to do anything to win. This usually involves having to raise outrageous amounts of money to run a campaign and then having to make that money back while in office it’s a recipe for corruption. Or employing underhanded tactics such as rigging, voter and opposition intimidation, spreading fake news and refusing to accept the results of elections, fundamentally undermining the system to invalidate their opponents’ victory. Winner takes all elections also tend to leave behind a feeling of division and resentment in ethnically diverse societies. When the candidate you support loses, in societies where voting blocs are often based on identity such as ethnicity or religion you feel like your tribe or clan has lost, leaving you feeling marginalised and much more susceptible to radicalism and open to drastic solutions, such as supporting the overthrow of the government you do not feel a part of.

African countries spend a lot of money on elections trying to ensure they are free and fair, which is all good and well until those expensive elections breed division, corruption and rigging. This isn’t an argument to stop holding elections, rather its an argument to reform elections and electoral systems with more creativity and shaped to the African context.

Changing how we vote – One man one vote, with a twist

Elections are based on a simple principle, that every citizen has a right to decide who runs their country. In most African electoral systems, you only vote for one person, and your vote is counted once. This need not be the case, in democracies such as Australia and Ireland they employ ranked or preference voting systems. Which not only considers the choice of the voter but also their preferences about all the candidates, by having ballots where citizens rank the candidates in order of preference. Thus, not only is your vote cast for your preferred candidate, your preferences live on even if your first choice is not a front-runner.

A simple example of this is to imagine a race for a member of parliament (MP) where there are four candidates. Candidate A wins 40% of the vote, Candidate B 30%, Candidate C 20% and Candidate D 10%. In a first past the post system, which most African countries employ, the candidate with 40% of the vote would become the MP, but 60% of people didn’t vote for them, leaving you with a democratic problem. Does the candidate represent a broad enough cross-section of his constituents? In a ranked voting system, after the first round of counting the candidate who won 10% would be eliminated as there is no mathematical possibility of them winning, but the votes would live on, through whomever the voters have chosen as their second choice. Thus, if half of candidate D’s voter’s choose Candidate C and the other half Candidate B it would now be   40%   35% and C 25%. In the third round of counting you eliminate Candidate C and if his voters express a third preference that is 80% for Candidate B and 20% for Candidate A. They would respectively have 60% and 45% of the vote and Candidate B would be the winner, because more voters expressed a preference for that candidate over the other candidate.

Meaning that to win elections candidates would have to appeal to all voters rather than just a simple plurality. Furthermore, cynical strategies like trying to divide the opposition vote by backing spoiler candidates would backfire as those votes could still eventually count against them. Most important a ranked voting system gives the voters a greater voice and ensures better representation as the candidate who is preferred by the most voters would win, rather than the cleverest campaigner.

Changing whom we vote for – ending marginalisation

As spoken about earlier the diverse nature of African societies, means that marginalisation is not only a possibility it is an unfortunate reality in far too many African states. Minority groups find themselves either completely locked out of the political process or having to become junior partners to larger groups in some form of coalition. This is due to the combination of a first past the post electoral system and single-seat constituencies, where a constituency or district is represented by only one person. There is no reason why this must be the case, why should representation be limited to one specific form, in Germany and Lesotho they employ what is called mixed member proportional representation. Where people cast 2 votes one for a candidate to represent a constituency another for a party that they feel best represents your views. Parties that achieve a minimum number of votes nationally (at least 5% in Germany) get a seat in parliament in proportion to the votes they have received. This allows voters to elect who they think will represent their community best, as well as who they think would do best nationally. In addition, it means that small parties, the ones that represent minority interests, the ones who may not be able to win an individual seat, but can get a share of the national vote are represented and can ensure that those minority voices, which may have been marginalised previously are heard.

Mixed member proportional representation is a way of trying to ensure that representation is as diverse and representative as possible, that the concerns of the big groups do not drown out the concerns and interests of minority groups.

Publicly funding candidates

It is not just enough to change how we vote and what we vote for. To get the kind of responsible leadership we need, we need to give the candidates without the ability to raise huge amounts of campaign cash the opportunity to put their case to the people and that means funding. Some countries on the continent have tried some form public funding for party’s policy in an effort to make political parties less susceptible to corruption. This hasn’t really worked as parties are happy to take whatever cash they can get their hands on, legitimate or otherwise, while candidates who aren’t willing to play the dirty cash game are unable to afford to campaign are either discouraged from running, or get drowned out by their better-funded opponents. Having a pool of public funds which candidates, who meet certain criteria – such as committing to publicly disclose all non-public funding that they receive – can receive would give them the ability to put their case to the public. And it would give the public a choice. Money talks, especially in elections, and should give everyone a voice.

Africanising elections

Prior to colonialism and its practice of centralising power in the state and its chosen representatives, many African societies had consensus seeking, conciliatory methods of exercising power. Chiefs and king (where they existed) were generally not tyrannical autocrats, they were constrained by, and had to listen to their people through various mechanisms (such as Botswana’s Kgotla). Rather than doing away with democracy or allowing its continual erosion on the continent we should instead be looking to strengthen it. Draw upon our socio-cultural history of responsive people-based leadership to inspire an Africanisation of democracy, to make it more relevant and effective on the continent. Doing this requires addressing the issue at the heart of democracy, elections.

The winner takes all, money-fuelled, to-the-death contest that elections have become on much of the continent is problematic as it deepens divisions within society and feeds the cycle of bad leadership on the continent. The three mechanisms suggested here, could have the effect of making every individual vote more meaningful, make elections more inclusive and give candidates from outside the tired mainstream a viable chance to win.

Elections may not be seen by many as a development policy issue, however, I believe it is. It is through elections that we have perpetuated the cycle of bad leadership, that has led to ineffective and counterproductive policy and development outcomes. I have previously written on Africa’s leadership problem and the need for citizens to take more responsibility for and elect and support the right type of leaders. But in order to do so they must have the electoral tools available for them to do so, ranked voting, mixed member proportional representation and publicly funded candidates are tools that not only put more control in the hands of the voting public but also enable diminish the incentives to vote for the devils we know and increase the incentives for a new type of politician to run.

Democracy and elections are loud and passionate, and that is because important things are at stake. Africanising elections means making them more relevant to voters by tailoring them to the societies and realities we actually live in rather than 18th century Britain and America. Better, more relevant, and African tailored electoral systems could mean, better leadership and accountability, which will mean better policy and developmental outcomes, its something worth trying.

Africanising Development

Development is about more than money, or machines or good policies – it is about real people and the lives they lead – Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda

Development in Africa is largely determined outside the continent. The ideas of modernisation and socialism that dominated post-independence thinking and policy were western in origin and backed by the ideological agendas of the cold war superpowers. The triumph of neoliberalism in the 1980s and 1990s in the west pushed developmental liberalism upon the continent, embodied in the policies of free markets and Structural Adjustment programs. Recently the millennium development goals (MDG’s) and sustainable development goals (SDG’s) did not originate on the continent but rather in the meeting rooms of think-tank’s and multilateral institutions such as the UN, World Bank and OECD.

When Asia embarked on its extraordinary development journey it did so not only by adopting the ideas of others but also by localising them. Focusing on what they saw as the appropriate goals and focus of development. As the world moves into an ever more uncertain 21st century Africa remains in thrall to foreign ideas of development. If the continent is to move forward, if Africa’s development story is to be successful, then we must develop African centred ideas of development and the policies to pursue them. To do that we have go back to the start, ask ourselves what and who development is for and what our priorities are, on that we can build development policies that are for Africa, and made by Africans.

A brief history of development

In the 1960’s as most African nations were gaining independence, one key aim was socio-economic development. With the aim of bringing African economies and standards of living up to 20th century standards. At this time the primary thinking in the development world (aid donors and development institution) and in governments was modernisation theory. The theory holds that modernisation is a prerequisite for development, and that developing countries must evolve from traditional to modernised societies in order to develop. This entails the transmission of capital (aid and FDI) and the replication of economic, social, political and legal values and institutions from the developed world to the developing world. Thus policy makers attempted to copy the modern institutions of the west and rapidly industrialise. This was not very successful as the failed development policies and strategies of the 1960’s and 1970’s show. Merely copying modernity did not replicate it, as it fails to account for the conditions that led to that modernity and the fact that the same conditions that existed in the developed world did not exist in Africa.

In the 1980’s and 1990’s in line with the rise of free market neoliberalism, and the end of the Cold War, liberalisation democratic political reform because the focus of development, driven by the nations of the West. The idea was that African economies had failed to grow because they did not have free markets and the liberal democrat institutions to ensure that those markets functioned fairly. Thus Africa was subjected to a series of market liberalisation structural adjustment programs where aid and debt assistance was made conditional on downsizing the governments role in the economy, privatising services and state companies and opening up countries to international trade. This again obviously did not work, many would argue that it took away the little government protection and safety nets that African’s had and subjected them to whims of international markets and allowed a rich few to get even richer by buying up cheap state owned companies under the guise of privatisation.

Thus in the 2000s recognising the failure of market liberalisation and modernisation before it the MDG’s emerged. The UN, OECD and World Bank had been working on a set of ideas and goals to reduce global poverty, and they combined their efforts to come up with 8 key development goals with which to pursue this goal. While there has been some progress under the MDG’s and later the SDG’s they still bear the hallmarks of the two previous development initiatives. They are driven by donors and international development institutions and have little local ownership by the countries they are intended for.

Thus the story of development theory and policy in Africa over the last 50 odd years has been essentially foreign, with abrupt shifts in thinking and focus when political and ideological views shift in western capitals and development institutions. What this has meant is that as African’s we have had little ownership of our own development. It has been something defined elsewhere and either thrust upon us or unthinkingly adopted without taking into account the views, history, culture and aspirations of the people it is intended for. Thus to Africanise development we must break this pattern, we must start thinking of development as something that comes from within rather than, an act of copying those who have gone before or accepting ideas without question.

Who is development for?

In all the talk one hears about industrialisation, jobs, infrastructure and even development, what one rarely hears is the voice of the people for whom it is all supposedly intended. At the core of development must be the people and their needs and wants. Africa’s development policies should not start in think tanks, ministry meeting rooms or development bank boardrooms, but with Africans. We must start with broad conversations both within and across nations by asking ourselves, what is it that we as Africans want? What future do we imagine for our children, what are the key challenges facing Africans as individuals and as communities. There are a number of ways of doing this (which I suggested in previous post) from town halls, to online comments and hangouts, to kgotlas and barazzas. These questions would serve to ground Africa’s development in the aspirations and needs of its people. If development is meant to better the lives of citizens then their concerns must be at it its centre, and then only way to ensure that is by asking them.

What is development for?

Development is about numbers. Or at least one could be forgiven for thinking so. The MDG’s and SDG’s are replete with goals and targets. Politicians and policy makers are always quoting GDP growth numbers, job numbers, kilometres of roads or railways built. You could be forgiven for thinking that development is a statistical exercise. This misses the fundamental point of development. It is, or at least should be, about the people, their quality of life and their dignity. If development continues to be about the numbers or the shiny new roads and railways rather than how they positively impact the lives of the people, then those numbers will continue to be largely meaningless. Those numbers must be rooted in what they mean for people. Are the jobs that have been providing a viable income, are the roads and railways built opening opportunities for ordinary citizens, is increased food production putting more food on tables and is GDP growth being felt at all levels of society.

Numbers are great, they can help measure progress and expose problem areas. But they are not what development is for, and when using those numbers, we must be careful to ensure that they are rooted in reality, the reality that development is about improving people’s lives.

What are the priorities?

At the core of economics is a simple concept, scarcity. How best are goods, services, labour and resources used and distributed within society when it is not possible to provide for everyone’s needs and wants. Development policy is similar, it is impossible to do everything at the same time and this necessitates choices. Do you invest more money in education or healthcare, which region do you build roads in first, which industries do you choose to promote etc. The East Asian tigers chose to prioritise traditional industrialisation, while a country like Costa Rica has chosen to prioritise environmental sustainability, healthcare and education alongside economic growth. The question is what are Africa’s priorities, what is our development focus. Over the last decade the priority has been the SDG’s, closing the infrastructure gap, industrialisation, jobs, intra-African trade, agriculture and energy provision. The problem is when everything is the priority nothing gets properly done, it is simply an impossible task to do everything well at once. Thus, policy makers have to prioritise, pick a development focus and do it well. That focus should be informed by the previous questions of what people actually want out of development.

Africanising development

Africanising development is not about discarding all ideas and theories of development if they do not come from an African source. Rather it is about grounding the continent’s development policy in the aspirations of its people, taking ownership of it. The three questions of who is development for, what is development for, and what are our development priorities would help better define development in African terms, ground it in the aspirations and needs of its people and better focus the efforts of governments and policymakers. For too long development in Africa has been about what other nations, institutions and experts think is best for Africa, rather than what African’s think is the best path for themselves. Africanising development means taking responsibility and ownership of the future of our continent and to do that we need to approach it from the bottom up, give all African’s a stake in it by making them active participants and owners of their continents future.

The African leadership problem

The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership. There is nothing basically wrong with Nigerian character. There is nothing wrong with the land, climate, water, air, or anything else. The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to the responsibility, to the challenge of personal example which are the hallmarks of true leadership… We have lost the twentieth century; are bent on seeing that or children also lose the 21st? God forbid – Chinua Achebe

Afriwonk is a policy blog, my broad aim is to stimulate conversation and thinking about new approaches to development policy from an African perspective. I try to stay away from the politics as it can turn readers off or introduce bias, rather I try to approach development policy as a people centred issue. However, the fact remains, no matter how good your policies are, if you have bad or ineffective leadership those policies are useless, and Africa has a leadership problem.

If you look around the continent democracy seems to be receding as more leaders seek to extend their time in office, corruption and poverty seem to be as stubborn as ever, and the challenges of development such as healthcare, education, joblessness continue to grow. These issues are not intractable, I firmly believe there are solutions. However, those solutions require effective leadership, leadership that has a clear vision and agenda and that leadership will only come about if Africans themselves demand it and provide it.

A clear vision and agenda or lack thereof

In my first blog I tried to outline what development means, that for me development is people centred ,aimed at improving the lives and livelihoods of the African people. Yet we rarely hear a clear articulation of what development means from leaders on the continent. African leaders constantly promise development, but what does that mean, when they campaign they have manifesto’s hundreds of pages long but without a clear agenda or sense of priorities they are just empty promises. In South Africa the ANC is struggling to find its voice, due to the fact that while the politics of South Africa may have been transformed its economy has not, and far too many people still live in poverty. Yet, other than empty sloganeering and symbolic votes in parliament the ANC is yet to present a clear articulation of what economic transformation means to them and the agenda they will pursue to achieve it. In Kenya the Jubilee administration campaigned on a manifesto full of goodies in 2013 and just last year after his re-election the president announced a new development agenda the “big four”, but the fact remains that both the original manifesto and new agenda came from consultants who were formulating an agenda to please crowds and win votes. In Ethiopia, the governments idea of state led development has come into conflict with the desires of its people who want more than just impressive GDP growth. Vision is an essential part of good leadership. Not only have we had leaders without principle or a sense of responsibility, they lack vision. There is no clear idea of the country/continent we want, and this is how we plan to get there. Franz Fanon whose work has inspired liberation movements for decades warned that the “gravest threat to Africa’s future is not colonialism but the ‘great appetites’ of post-colonial elites, and their ‘absence of ideology’”. The lack of vision with a clear agenda has and continues to hobble the continent. It means that we have haphazard badly thought out policy that is aimed not at improving the lives of people but rather at enriching a select few at the top or winning an election. It has been part of the problem that has led to the tragic cast of thieves, despots and psychopaths that have undone the hope that independence brought. If Africa is to develop clarity of vision and well-defined agendas are needed from its leaders.

L’etat est tout de nous – the state is all of us

King Louis XIV of France was known to say ‘L’etat c’est Moi’ or ‘I am the State’, it was his way of saying that he was the absolute ruler of France. It is easy to criticise African leaders, the lack of vision, the non-existent agendas, the corruption, ethnic politics etc. but leaders are nothing without the people who follow them. If Africa is to get better leadership, it will not magically appear it must be demanded by the people. Professor Bimpe Aboyade the first woman in sub-Saharan Africa to gain a PhD in English Literature once wrote “Our problem [in Nigeria] is not just that we are unlucky to be saddled with leaders without vision most of the time, but that majority of the citizens have no idea as to what they really want out of governance except the basic necessities like food, drinkable water, shelter and good roads. You therefore have people praising to high heavens corrupt and incompetent leaders for merely patching few kilometers of road”

In many countries we spend the years between elections complaining about our leaders, decrying the corruption and poor service delivery, and yet when it comes to elections we continue to vote for them. Whether it be for ethnic reasons, or religious reasons or some form of as yet undiagnosed electoral masochism among African voters we continue to return these same leaders to office. Africa’s leadership problem starts with its people, if we as a continent want better leadership we must vote for it, to encourage the genuinely gifted and valuable leaders across all walks of African life to run for higher office and back them when they do. Fundamentally we must realise that the state is all of us, we as Africans must have a better idea of what we want as Africans and demand it from our leaders.

 The curse can be lifted

There is an Angolan anecdote, that at creation God blessed Angola with abundant mineral wealth, other nations of the world complained at the favourable disposition towards the  country, in response God told them: wait till you see their leaders. Maybe God should have also added that we should see the people who will follow these leaders.

I do not think Africa is cursed with bad leadership, there are extraordinary leaders around the continent who lead families, churches and mosques, neighbourhoods, villages, businesses, schools etc. and yes even some politicians. If Africa is to find solutions to its problems it will take leaders willing to implement them, there is no government policy that can do that. Africa’s leadership problem will require its people to take responsibility, though that is easier said than done, it is not impossible.

 

Rethinking Africa’s industrialisation

Industrialisation, it is economic development goal of countries around the continent, it is the key that will unlock the doors to mass employment, better standards of living and higher income of hundreds of millions of Africans. Yet this goal has proved elusive, through decades of state led developmental policy, to structural adjustment and market led to development, industrialisation has been stubbornly evasive. There are several culprits that one could blame for this such as corruption, or foreign intervention on the continent, and there is no doubt that they are factors. One of the key culprits and the one that I would like to focus on is the failure of policy, specifically a failure of imagination. African leaders have been focused on replicating Western and East Asian industrialisation. I believe in doing so they have created fundamentally flawed policy, policy that is not grounded in the realities of African economies and societies but on the experiences of others. I firmly believe that if we re-imagine industrialisation, ask ourselves what we have that we can build on, how to harness it and what we want our countries to look like afterwards, we can develop a clear idea of what African industrialisation is and the right policies to pursue it.

Industrialization

What is industrialisation? It is a word that gets thrown around a lot, and far too often it is used in jargon filled economic or policy reports that render the word meaningless such as this from the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA);

‘The big opportunity for Africa in 2016, as a late-comer to industrialization, is in adopting alternative economic pathways to industrialization. This requires governments to take on-board the drivers, challenges, and trade-offs in pushing for a greening of industrialization’[1]

If we are to go for simpler definition of the word you could look at the dictionary, the Oxford dictionary defines it as ‘The development of industries in a country or region on a wide scale’[2] which is unsatisfyingly vague. Wikipedia’s definition is more detailed stating ‘Industrialisation is the period of social and economic change that transforms a human group from an agrarian society into an industrial society, involving the extensive re-organisation of an economy for the purpose of manufacturing.’[3]

Thus, I imagine when African leaders are talking about industrialisation, they are talking about transformation from an agrarian society and economy to an industrialised one, where most Africans work in factories producing goods for the world. This industrialisation is seen as the quickest and best way to mass employment and poverty reduction which Africa desperately needs. To do this, African leaders are building transport and energy infrastructure to bring down the costs of production and investing significant money and effort in attracting foreign investors to build manufacturing industries. However, there are serious issues with this way of thinking which makes a traditional industrialisation policy for Africa unlikely to be effective.

Impediments to industrialisation

The first issue is global, competition. Africa sees its key competitive advantages lying in two factors, a young and cheap labour force and growing population providing a growing market. This is true, but it is not unique. Nations such as India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia etc. all have young and growing populations and unlike Africa they are much better integrated into global trade networks, and already have attracted significant manufacturing industries such as textiles and vehicle assembly, in short, we are competing against other regions who are farther down the road than us. Second, infrastructure is not enough. The cost of production (into which the costs of power, labour and transport are big factors) is a significant element in the thinking of potential investors but they also need legal security, the knowledge that their intellectual property, and contracts will be protected and enforced. They require physical security for their facilities, goods and workers and they need stable regulatory and tax regimes. These additional factors are unfortunately not always the focus of government industrialisation policy. Third, automation. As automation decreases the need for labour in manufacturing industries, cheap African labour becomes less and less of a draw to potential industrial investors.

Thus, African leaders and policy makers face a conundrum. The strategy they are pursuing is subject to competition from better placed nations in other regions, the focus on infrastructure is not enough and technology may take the jobs we are hoping to attract.

Reimagining industrialisation

In the face of this Africa needs to get creative, we need to reimagine industrialisation for Africa and there are several ways we can do this.

  • Agriculture as industry

Farming is the primary source of food and income for Africans and provides up to 60 percent of all jobs on the continent. [4] It is impossible to industrialize without the agricultural sector playing a significant role and it is no accident that China, Japan and South Korea all pursued land and agricultural reform as the first step in their industrialisation. Africa’s agriculture sector holds immense potential not just for growing food but for value addition (processing and marketing of agricultural products). Most agricultural products exported from the continent are exported as raw or lightly processed and this is a problem. Every sack of coffee and tea exported elsewhere to be processed and sold, all the cocoa exported elsewhere to be made into chocolate, all the avocados exported to be made into guacamole, palm oil, etc (this list could go on) is millions of jobs of and billions of dollars of income lost. African governments must make a concerted effort to bring these jobs to Africa, put in place tax incentives, tax penalties, regulations and make available funding to ensure that processing into finished products takes place on the continent. Furthermore, African governments need to help agricultural producers and processors understand the markets they want to serve, what sort of production and logistics chain they will need, what trade and safety regulations do they need to obey.  Creating jobs and income in agriculture will have significant impacts on other industries. All those people with jobs and increased income will want to buy goods and services in other industries which would make Africa an even more attractive investment destination for the industries that we are trying to attract. Agriculture, agricultural processing and marketing can be the foundation of industrialisation on the continent and it is high time governments recognised that and gave it the focus and help it needs.

  1. Don’t be afraid to copy

Many countries such as Japan, China even Germany in the 18th century kickstarted their industrial growth by copying others, not their policies but goods. Japanese cars, and Chinese electronics started out being derided as cheap knock offs, today they are global leaders in their industries. African policy makers should search for commonly imported goods that can be made cheaply on the continent and provide incentives and protection for African businesses to make them on the continent. Why import second-hand American clothes when they can be made in Africa, why import expensive medicine when we can set up generic pharmaceutical manufacturing, why import motorcycles that can just as easily be assembled on the continent. This will take some courage from leaders on the continent as they will face resistance from importers and foreign governments but only by being bold can we achieve industrialisation.

  1. Give African investors and entrepreneurs a leg up

In 1958, the USA created the Small Business Investment Company (SBIC) program to facilitate the flow of long-term capital to America’s small businesses. The SBIC partners with private investors to that finance small businesses.[5] Over the course of it is lifetime the SBIC has provided over $60 billion dollars of funding to small businesses and despite many of them not ending up as success stories, the ones that have succeeded (figure 1) are worth much more than all the money that has been lent out over the course of it is history. The biggest is Apple, back in its early days before it had much private investors apple received a loan from the SBIC which was crucial in allowing it to produce it is first products and get additional investment. Today, Apple is worth over $900 billion[6]. African governments must show the same willingness to invest in African businesses as the private sector has not done so yet and we cannot sit around hoping it will. If only one of these investments is half as successful as Apple it can transform the continent.

Figure 1 (source: http://www.sbia.org/?page=success_stories)

  1. Trade with each other.

Intra-African trade is pitifully low (figure 2). And despite much talk and several initiatives on the subject it remains more expensive and much more of a headache for African countries to trade with each other. This must change, initiatives such as the Continental Free Trade Area[7] and regional trading blocs require leadership and concrete policy from the continent not just lip service. Furthermore, it is important that governments make a concerted effort to link African businesses, and traders with markets across the continent. It is not enough to build infrastructure and sign trade agreements, businesses need to know the regulations of other markets and most importantly link up with whom they can work. African governments have embassies and diplomats across the continent, but they do little work in the commercial realm. They can be tasked with identifying opportunities in export markets as well as providing information to businesses in other countries on opportunities, tax and regulatory information and key contacts at home. Jump starting intra-African trade will require a concerted effort to link African businesses to African markets.

Figure 2 Africa’s intraregional trade as a % of the continent total trade 2002-10

Industrialisation African style.

Industrialisation policy on the continent requires a rethink. African leaders and policy makers must recognise that the world has changed, and we cannot simply copy what Asian countries did 40 years ago or western countries did in the 19th century. Africa must forge its own path to industrialisation and development and doing so will require policy that capitalizes on Africa’s own advantages in agriculture. That is bold and aggressive in kick starting industries such as being willing to copy products and processes. It will require African governments to step up to the plate and fund African businesses that will be at the forefront of indigenous industrialisation. And it will require governments to proactively open up and allow Africans to trade with themselves.

If we want to create the millions of jobs that Africa needs, to move our economies into the next stage of development we must be bold and imaginative. We must re-conceive industrialisation to the African context and remake our policy to pursue it. If not, I fear in another 50 years we will still be wondering when if at all Africa can industrialize.

 

[1] https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/PublicationFiles/era2016_executive-summary_en-rev6may.pdf

[2] https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/industrialization

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrialisation

[4] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2016/01/22/foresight-africa-2016-banking-on-agriculture-for-africas-future/

[5] https://www.sba.gov/sbic

 

[6] http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/03/investing/apple-market-value-900-billion/index.html

[7] https://au.int/en/ti/cfta/about

Being poor is a crime: to develop Africa needs criminal justice reform

“We must change our lawless habits, our attitude to public office and public trust. We must change our unruly behaviour in schools, hospitals, marketplaces, motor parks, on the roads, in homes and offices. To bring about change, we must change ourselves by being law-abiding citizens” – President Muhammadu Buhari

 

It is not something at the top of the agenda of most politicians and governments and you rarely hear it on the campaign trail but Africa needs criminal justice reform. Most of the continent is still using laws that date back to the colonial era that criminalises things (like loitering, hawking and begging) that are targeted at the poor, too many people being held in jail are there awaiting trial and because they are poor they cannot afford bail. Most law enforcement across the continent is selective, and disproportionately targeted at the poor while those with money go free. This has made the police and the law an enemy of the people, rather than serve society the law is seen as a tool, a tool of repression and extortion and it is time for that to end. There have been any number of police reform efforts across the continent looking to deal with police corruption and ineffectiveness, and several governments have sought to increase police numbers to increase law enforcement coverage. However, very few have thought to look at the laws which the police and the courts are supposed to be enforcing, that if we had laws that actually sought to go after the crimes that affect people’s lives then law enforcement might work, that by making punishment and bail proportionate to crime, jails and courts could be decongested, that modern law enforcement must have modern, not colonial laws.

Colonial laws, colonial police

Governments across the continent have reformed land laws, education laws, health laws, marriage laws and many have written whole new constitutions, it is surprising that very few have thought that a modern criminal justice system, with modern laws, is necessary for development. A good example of this is Nigeria, Nigeria has 5 major criminal justice laws 4 of them (the Penal Code, the Criminal Code, the Criminal Procedure Act and the Evidence Act) all date back to the colonial era, and the Police Act dates back to pre-independence 1943[1]. As you can see from figure 1, criminal laws in much of former British colonial Africa descend from 19th-century British law.

Figure 1 Development of criminal codes in Africa during British colonialism Source: South African Litigation Centre[2]

Colonial justice was prejudiced against poor black Africans, and even though the explicitly racist provisions of the laws may be gone, their intent and the effect of policing, suppressing and intimidating poor black Africans are still there. Colonial police forces were not created to ‘protect and serve’, their primary mission was to protect the state which meant suppressing resistance, fighting crime and protecting society was a secondary mission. The symbol of this is VIP protection, is it any surprise that state officials and politicians across the continent have (often excessive) police protection while police are spread thin in the places where they are needed most.

The second key issue is the focus of colonial criminal laws, prisons, and the colonial system for used imprisonment as the primary form of punishment and as a result, Africa’s prisons are desperately overcrowded (figure 2)

Figure 2 Top 10 African jail Occupancy level (based on official capacity) – source world prisons brief

And far too many of these people are people on remand or pre-trial detention (figure 3), which means they have not been convicted of a crime yet but are waiting to face trial and are too poor to afford the bail terms.

Figure 3 Top 10 African Pre-trial detainees/remand prisoners – source world prisons brief

In short, we have old laws focusing the justice system not on the protection of its citizens but on protecting the state and in the process allowing criminals to flourish. The court system based on these old laws jails anyone for anything (such as vagrancy which makes it a crime to be poor and present) and as a result, our prisons are overcrowded, mainly with poor people.

Reform law to enforce it.

Criminal justice reform must start with the laws that underpin it. Africa must reform its criminal justice laws, so long as the heavy hand of the law falls on the poorest and most vulnerable the rule of law will remain elusive. If we want true police reform, to end the culture of impunity that enables corruption and crime then people must have trust in the laws that underpin justice. And while we are at it we might just end up decongesting our jails and giving millions a chance to resume lives put on hold.

Ideally, the debate would start with a clean slate, asking two key questions what is the purpose of these laws and do they contribute to the safety and security of the public. Reform of criminal laws would allow us to look at what should be a criminal offence, decriminalising things like loitering, begging, and hawking will stop criminalising people for simply being poor. Then we can have a discussion about decriminalising social problems such as prostitution or marijuana/khat/miraa possession, it may be controversial, but the debate should be had. How can and should we punish serious offences and misdemeanours, jail is not the only solution, particularly for petty crimes and especially for people with addiction problems or mental health problems who need help, not punishment.

If we are to change our lawless habits as President Buhari suggests then Africans must have fair laws. We must have laws that target crime and insecurity that acknowledge that poverty is not a crime, and police services that protect people, rather than colonial forces in all but name that protect the state. Development requires justice, it requires safe and secure communities, it requires the rule of law that applies to all without fear or favour. It’s time criminal justice reform was moved to the top of the agenda of African governments policy agenda.

 

[1] https://guardian.ng/features/youthspeak/time-to-mend-nigerias-broken-criminal-justice-system-1/

[2] https://southernafricalitigationcentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/05_SALC-NoJustice-Report_The-Persistence-of-Colonial-Vagrancy-Laws-in-Southern-Africa.pdf

Interest rate caps could work and be a good thing

Despite what the IMF, World Bank, Kenya Bankers Association and various private sector organisations say (as well as free market logic), interest caps can be a good thing, if done right they could actually give people access to affordable credit, but that can only happen if governments around Africa stop borrowing as much as they have been.

In August 2016 president Uhuru Kenyatta signed into law legislation that capped the interest rates charged by Kenyan banks to 4% above the Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) benchmark rate. This means that if you were to go to a bank in Kenya to apply for a loan today the interest rate charged would not be more than 14%, which is 4% above the CBK’s benchmark rate of 10%.

While it was a drastic step, it was a long one coming. Kenyans had long been frustrated by banks charging exorbitant interest rates often 10 or more percentage points above the CBK benchmark rate. The Donde Bill of 2000 similarly capped interest rates but was neutered by the courts, and another similar law was stopped in 2013 because of heavy lobbying by the banks in parliament. In 2016 the public had, had enough and MPs (with an election around the corner) were listening and the bill was passed, somewhat unexpectedly the president signed the law.

The consequences of the rate cap

The consequences of the law have been significant. First and most significant is that banks have severely cut lending to the private sector, with credit growth falling ominously (Figure 1) meaning that borrowers particularly small businesses have been unable to access credit, meaning that not only can they not invest in further growth they also cannot use credit to supplement working capital [1],  while ordinary households have been unable to get mortgages and car loans. This effect has been cited by people like the IMF, World Bank and the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and industry as a cause of Kenya’s recent economic slowdown.

Figure 1 – growth of private sector growth in Kenya

Secondly, in response to falling profits from interest rates banks have cut costs, significantly. In 2016 banks in Kenya retrenched over 1000 workers (approx. 1.6% of the financial services workforce in the country), and aggressively pushed digital platforms in order to cut down on more expensive physical infrastructure (bank branches, ATM’s etc)

The third and most important thing is how banks have been making their profits. Instead of lending to people and businesses they have been lending to the government. Banks have shifted their money to buying treasury bills, which are short term loans the government takes to cover its expenses on an ongoing basis, and they are making a lot of money while doing it. The logic is simple, why lend to individuals and private businesses, where you have to spend time and money assessing each applicant for their risk and run the risk that they might not pay you back. Its much easier to lend money to the government and though the interest rates may be lower, the volumes are very large and the government will not default, essentially guaranteeing profit. This is all enabled by a government with a never-ending appetite for more and more money, the Kenya governments debts have soared over the last year and here lies the problem.  The rate cap will never achieve the goals it was meant to – making loans cheaper for ordinary Kenyan business and people – if banks can simply lend to the government and still make huge profits. On the back of this there are increasing calls on the government to repeal the rate capping laws to ‘restore’ private sector credit and boost the economy.

This would, in my view, be the wrong approach, it would simply take Kenya back to the position it was in before. Banks would be charging people and businesses blatantly usurious interest rates for loans while continuing to lend to a government with the financial appetite of a black hole, in the process making enormous profits.

Making rate caps work

Repealing the laws would be a step backwards. The focus should be on making the laws do what they were supposed to do, to which the key is stopping government borrowing so much money. The rate capping law has been a godsend for a government borrowing from every willing lender, the law made the banks much more willing to lend to the government and avoid the effects of the law.

If government appetites for borrowing money could be curbed, then the interest rate caps could work. Eventually the banks will run out of costs to cut, without treasury bills as a source of endless profits, they would have to do what banks are supposed to do, lend. Rather than caving to pressure from banks and international financial institutions (again) the top policy makers at the Kenyan treasury need to start thinking about the people the laws were meant to serve and not the accounting books in front of them.

Rate caps around the continent

Kenya is not the only country on the continent facing the problem of how to improve and increase private sector lending. Across the continent, access to credit is a major hurdle faced by businesses (figure 2)

Figure 2 Percentage of Firms Identifying Access to Finance as a Major Constraint[2]

Without credit small businesses are stuck as they cannot get the funds to operate and grow, Africa may talk glowingly about its entrepreneurial spirit but without a finance industry willing to lend to them the reality will never meet the high hopes. If rate caps can be made to work it would stand as a model that other African countries can follow, it will show that with a simple law you can fundamentally change the dynamic in the financial sector that will force banks to serve their customers, something that free market economics has been unable to do. Giving African households, businesses and entrepreneurs access to affordable could be truly game changing and contribute to solving a range of problems from housing shortages to unemployment to the high rate of failures among SME’s. However, for affordable credit to become available lawmakers and policy makers need to be bold and force the financial industry to serve Africans and that will require policy, regulation and law. For these types of laws to work it will require the government to curb its appetite to spend and borrow as much as it can get away with, something we haven’t yet quite figured out how to do.

 

[1] For many businesses flows of income do not exactly match their spending (e.g. salary must be paid monthly but clients have 60 days to pay you)

[2] https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/afdb-calls-on-credit-providers-to-increase-lending-to-meet-demand-by-african-msmes-17138/

Welcome to Afriwonk – a blog about policy in Africa

Policy in Africa, Why?

You cannot carry out fundamental change without a certain amount of madness. In this case, it comes from nonconformity, the courage to turn your back on the old formulas, the courage to invent the future. It took the madmen of yesterday for us to be able to act with extreme clarity today. I want to be one of those madmen. We must dare to invent the future. – Thomas Sankara

The word ‘policy’ is immediately boring. It evokes images of long papers stating the obvious in as many ways as possible, civil servants labouring away writing those papers and announcements by ministers that are soon forgotten.

However, policy has real effects on peoples lives. Bad policy hurts people, almost all policy has winners and losers, good policy can transform lives and especially in Africa, most policy is never implemented properly. This is why I am writing a blog on policy in Africa there are some truly fantastic ideas out there, that could have a positive impact on peoples lives, there are bad policies which are disastrous and there is a lot of half baked policy that does a little of both. Most of it goes unnoticed by the wider public. I would like to shed some light on the world of policy in Africa, chart both the successes and failures and examine some of the ideas out there that could be transformative.

For too long the policy process in Africa has been obscured from the public and shaped by donors, the IMF, World Bank or foreign governments. I honestly believe that for truly transformative change to come to the continent we have to start shaping what our governments do ourselves. We have to throw out the conventional solutions and as Sankara said think “think with a certain amount of madness”. We need to come up with policies for Africa that fit the African context, and fix African problems. On this blog by looking at how policy succeeds and fails or taking a deeper look at new ideas I hope to make my small contribution to that, to get people thinking outside of a box that hasn’t worked as intended for half a century. Thabo Mbeki once talked about African solutions for African problems, I believe to come up with those solutions we first need to have African ideas.