The West seems to be at an illiberal moment. Driven by nostalgia for past prosperity, frustration at a neoliberal economics that stubbornly refuses to create broad prosperity, and anger at immigration which they feel is undermining their cultures and societies. The response of the voter is reactionary, to vote for right wing candidates who promise to restore and revive nations and protect societies. For Africa this poses two questions one of policy and strategy the other more philosophical.

At a policy and strategic level, how does Africa deal with a West, weakened and more inward looking. Though still a major trading partner, in control of the majority of the global financial sector, a major investor on the continent and largest donor. What does Africa want and how do we use their concerns to benefit the continent?

At a philosophical level, how do we put Africa first. Craft policy that ensures, that unlike the West we don’t wake up in 50 years and regret where we have ended up.

A strategic policy approach

Like it or not the West still has an enormous influence on Africa, as a key investor, trading partner, aid donor, and security partner. This implies three realities for Africa.

First how do we create policy that enables Africa to benefit from what the West needs. For that we need to understand the West’s needs, such as non-Chinese low-cost, low-carbon manufacturing, inputs for the creation semi-conductors and renewable energy technology. Can Africa restructure trade agreements to make it an attractive destination for manufacturers, rework mineral rights agreements and tax laws to ensure maximum value from material exports. Where there are needs and demands there is leverage. We must identify those needs and where the continent has leverage.

Second, how can we shift to deal with a West that is more transactional and less open. Guided by cost benefit analyses rather than principles or broad strategic goals. This means appeals to humanitarian or democratic principles will fall on increasingly deaf ears. Leaders will be much more interested in deals that can sort out immediate problems or be presented as political wins back home.

Third, how do we untangle Africa, politically and economically from the control of the West and its political and economic institutions, such as the IMF (you can read more on that here). Not so we can isolate ourselves  so Africa can build policy space and autonomy.

Fundamentally this will require African policy makers to be more agile, more creative, less wedded to the way things are traditionally done as the people they are dealing with in Washington and other capitals, do not care about it either.

Africa First

One thing that some are starting to realise in the West, is that individualistic short termism has led to their current predicament. The Reaganite and Thatcherite neo-liberal revolution of the 1980’s emphasised the autonomy of the individual over society, and primacy of private over the public. In the private sector Friedmanite focus in shareholder value bred a short-term obsession with returns, with everything and everyone judged by the quarterly return and the value of long-term investment, research, labour, and communities discarded. Africa must learn this lesson, prioritising the short term, the next quarter, the stock price at the end of trading, the next election over the long term will endanger long-term societal prosperity.

Thus, as Africa confronts a changing West, it must not only think about how to take advantage over the course of the next few years but also how it can build long-term prosperity and working societies over the next few decades. In short, fundamentally African politicians and policy makers must put Africa First and doing so requires you to think not of yourself or, your tribe or even your country, but the continent as a whole.

Make Africa Strategic

Since independence it is, in my view, fair to say that the only thing African leaders have been strategic about is their own political survival. Rarely have they been good about thinking abut their country and continents place in the world and how to advance that or take advantage of it to improve the lives of African’s. Africa missed the boat on export led growth in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s. Africa failed to adjust to the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of the Washington consensus. Africa failed to properly utilise the rise of China.

We cannot keep failing, and to avoid this Africa needs to be strategic. How do we stay out of great power conflict? How do we take advantage of the need for critical minerals? How do we utilise the fact that Africa will be the youngest and most populous continent by 2050?

All these questions (and more require strategic thinking), scenario planning, exploring ideas, consulting experts. Not to produce yet another policy document but a guide, an approach to key issues and opportunities that doesn’t prescribe thinking (you must do this) but shapes it (we are trying to get here).

Make Africa Great

Think what you may of President Trump, his message is simple, succinct, and engaging. It tells voters that it will take them back to a time when America was great.

Africa has a different challenge, first we must decide, what does great mean for Africa? In my view a good place to start is how do we avoid the fate of the West, how do we make sure that in 50+ years time we do not end up bitter, depressed, and angry, but a model for the world striving to be even better.