For the times they are a-changin’ – Bob Dylan
In 1956 Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt. Their goal was to regain control of the Suez Canal and to remove the Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, who had nationalised the Anglo-French owned Suez Canal Company, which administered the canal. However, pressure from the USA, USSR and UN led to the withdrawal of invading forces. More importantly the episode humiliated the British and French governments, it signalled the end of the era of the Western European powers as the worlds major powers directing global events and using gunboat diplomacy to get what they wanted and confirmed the Cold War powers the USA and USSR.
On February 24th Russia invaded the Ukraine, setting off the first large scale inter-state war in Europe since the end of World War 2 in 1945. Not only does this action break the post-war European security settlement, but the weak response of the West imposing piecemeal sanctions that have neither stopped or deterred Russia, like Suez in 1956, signals the end of the post-Cold war world dominated by the West. That while the USA and EU remain global military and economic powers, they are not, as George Bush once put it, “the deciders”.
A new world order is emerging, where there is no pre-eminent power like the USA, but one where there are two global powers (the USA and China), regional powers (Russia, India, UK, Japan, Brazil) and supra-state alliances like the EU all competing to satisfy their interests and goals. Where does Africa fit in this new world order? How does Africa position itself and work to ensure that its agenda is met and is Africa’s voice is heard on the world stage?
1. What will this new world look like for Africa
Russia has shattered international norms that have existed since the end of Second World War and signalled the beginning of the post war settlement.
- In the face of a much more assertive Russia the West, specifically the EU/NATO will itself have to be a lot more assertive and will look to match or outcompete Russia not just in Europe but across the globe including in Africa.
- While the USA will still be a global superpower, it will not be the only one as it has been in the past. It clearly sees its main competitor as China, and while the main theatre of competition will be in the Pacific. The USA is already keen to compete with China in Africa where it sees China as having gained an advantage.
- For China they will be looking to continue growing their influence and footprint on the continent especially in relation to the USA and Europeans.
- In addition to the big 3 (USA, China and the EU) regional powers, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, Turkey and the Gulf States will all be looking to grow their influence on the continent.
What does this mean for Africa, what is this influence that these world and regional powers are looking for. As has always been the case, the world continues to covet Africa’s resources, the traditional resources of oil, gas, precious and industrial metals, but more than that Africa has the resources (rare earths, lithium etc,) that are needed for the green transition. With the worlds largest population of young people, Africa is also a critical market for the future and access to those markets is becoming increasingly important. In short, Africa is strategically and economically valuable and as a result in a multipolar world there are significant risks around how the rest of the world engages with Africa. However, if Africa rises to the challenge and is smart about how it navigates this new reality there is a significant opportunity reshape Africa’s influence and place in the world.
2. Learn from the past, stand apart from the competition
During the Cold War when the USA and USSR were competing for global influence and Africa became a theatre for this competition. With the superpowers throwing their considerable weight behind various regimes to support their own strategic or ideological interests, despite those regimes being the opposite of the principles espoused by the superpowers. As result the West backed the apartheid regime in South Africa, and Mobutu in Zaire while the Soviet Union backed regimes like the Derg in Ethiopia, and both sides pursued proxy wars in the Congo, Angola, Algeria etc. making conflicts bloodier and more tragic than they otherwise would have been.
It is critical to avoid this happening again. Africa must be truly unaligned, which means having cordial and open relations with everyone but not being a formal ally of anyone beyond the Afro-Caribbean bloc that would put Africa in the cross hairs of the global powers. Not only will this maintain our neutrality when conflicts break out among the global powers, it will prevent Africa from again becoming a theatre for the proxy wars of the great powers, where African blood is spilt to achieve the strategic goals of foreign powers. Finally, true neutrality will enhance our voice on the global stage positioning the continent as an honest, neutral voice in global affairs, something that has had value throughout history.
3. Strengthen African Multilateralism
In his speech at the UN Security Council after the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Kenyan Ambassador stated that “Multilateralism lies on its deathbed tonight. It has been assaulted today as it as it has been by other powerful states in the recent past.”. Between Trump and Russia’s recent actions, global multilateralism is in indeed on its deathbed. However, that does not mean African multilateralism cannot play a significant role. By African multilateralism, I mean a set of norms and ways of engaging with the outside world that are agreed upon through pan African institutions, namely the AU and ACFTA. African states will not agree on everything and have different priorities. If Mali prefers a Russian security alliance to a French one, that is their choice, if Djibouti chooses Chinese economic investment over American that is their decision. However, we should all be able to agree what the boundaries of acceptable behaviour from outside the continent are and a set of measures that should those boundaries be breached can be implemented with wide consensus. Much in the same way that ECOWAS takes measures when there is a coup in their region, the AU or CFTA could impose sanctions (e.g., restricting trade in critical goods) on the offending states.
Doing so would set a tone for how the world engages with Africa and impose consequences for those looking to turn back the clock and act in an “imperial” manner.
4. Unite on core issues
Though not every African country will agree on anything there are some things that we can agree on such as:
- The need to grow Intra-African trade and change the terms of African trade with the wider world.
- The need to act on climate change and fund resilience, mitigation, and the green transition in Africa.
- The need to change the international tax system to be fairer.
Around these core issues on which African states agree there is the opportunity to craft a common position and push that on the world stage as one. Building common cause with other nations to drive joint priorities. Focus on these core issues where global powers cannot play divide and rule would further entrench Africa’s position as a serious player on the global stage.
This time must be different
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the death knell of the Post-World War 2 and Post-Cold War settlement that has given the world an unprecedented period in which states rarely went to war with each other.
As the new multipolar world order emerges and takes shape, Africa cannot let what happened in the past happen again. We must make sure that Africa is not a venue for exploitation, extraction and proxy wars. This will require deliberate, smart, coordinated and flexible foreign policy from African states. Acting in concert where possible, and where not, within an agreed upon set of norms and practices. If we do so, Africa can ensure that not only does it navigate the new global reality but helps shape the terms of this new reality in are
Also published on Medium.