Saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, advancing economic growth… these are one and the same fight – Ban Ki-moon former UN Secretary-General
On the 8th October the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report and its frightening. The report warns that there are only 12 years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of a 1.5C rise set by the Paris accords. Anything beyond that will radically increase the risks of flooding, droughts, and extreme heat. Keeping warming to 1.5C is possible but will require concerted global action, something that has been elusive thus far.
For Africa the situation is dire, the continent will bear the brunt of climate change. As CarbonBrief points out the heat waves will get hotter, the rainy seasons will become more erratic and droughts more likely. For a continent largely reliant on rain fed agriculture it means yet more cycles of drought and famine. The implications of climate change for Africa, if we do nothing, will further entrench poverty for another generation, and displace millions creating climate refugees.
However, this does not need to happen. Climate change is not a good thing, but as the saying goes ‘you should never let a good crisis go to waste’. Climate change is a crisis for Africa, but it is also an opportunity. Rather, than hold out our proverbial begging bowl for money and technical assistance to foster resilience, which is the strategy of most African governments at climate change summits. We can use climate change as the spark for transformation, as we actively seek to mitigate its effects and minimise the continents contribution to climate change. It can be an opportunity to harness science and technology and equip our farmers with tools to feed the continent in an era of shifting weather patterns. To leapfrog fossil fuel energy and lay the foundation of Africa’s economic and social development on green sustainable energy. And to take up the mantle of leadership where the worlds advanced nations have failed to do so. In previous posts (here and here) I have advocated for a conception of development in Africa with the dignity of all Africans as its core goal. Anybody thinking about development in Africa in the 21st century has to account for climate change, as climate change not only endangers our environment but our development and dignity as well. However, with smart, forward-looking policy it need not be a disaster.
Harnessing science to transform agriculture
Agriculture is the employer and source of livelihood for about 60% of the continent. The impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa will be significant and we are already seeing it. This is only the beginning, as pointed out earlier, the bigger the increase in warming the more pronounced these effects will be. This poses a challenge to African states, farmers and consumers; how can we ensure that we can grow enough to feed a growing continent. A large part of that answer lies in investing in science and technology to empower African farmers. To give them the tools (such as GM crops which I have written about previously) that can handle the changing climatic conditions and boost yields. Using technology to give farmers better knowledge about weather, soil and water conditions so they can improve yields, access to markets so they can get the best prices, and access to storage facilities so that we can cut post-harvest losses.
Investing in science and technology would not only help farmers and feed the continent it could provide the push we need to grow our scientific and technological capabilities on the continent. Industrialisation, development, science and technology are intimately linked and if Africa is to succeed in the 21st century digital and knowledge economy it must develop its STEM capabilities. Confronting the challenges of climate change, such as the ones it poses to agriculture could be the African moonshot, that spurs innovation and industry throughout the economy.
Leapfrogging dirty energy
Leapfrogging is the idea that less developed regions, countries or companies can advance rapidly through the adoption of modern systems without going through intermediary steps. The classic case of this in Africa is mobile phones. Mobile phones allowed most of the continent to skip expensive copper land lines, and the embrace of the technology has revolutionised many aspects of life and the economy. Like phone lines we have the ability to leapfrog fossil fuels. Renewable energy is now getting to a stage where they are almost as cheap and will soon be cheaper than fossil fuels. There are some who would argue that fossil fuels like coal are cheap and readily available, however that is increasingly untrue and African countries have free and broad access to the sun and wind. There are others who argue that developed nations used fossil fuels to industrialise and thus why should Africa be disadvantaged by not using them. But that sounds like a petulant child arguing that they too should be allowed to misbehave because everyone else did, frankly Africa has to be better than that. By investing in green ways of generating energy and innovative (e.g. mini-grids) of getting it to the people who need it, Africa can lay a sustainable foundation for its development. We can leapfrog the dirty fossil fuel generating plants and possibly even the expensive centralised electricity grid systems, most importantly we can develop our economies not at the expense of future generations but with their welfare in mind.
Leading the world
We may be a poor continent but that does not mean that Africa cannot lead on key issues. From the 1960’s onwards African nations led the international and diplomatic fight against apartheid South Africa. Boycotting international events, helping South African exiles and the ANC, getting the apartheid government banned from international fora and sports, sanctioning and boycotting their economy, it took a while eventually the rest of the world caught up and the apartheid system fell. The developed world has displayed a remarkable lack of leadership on the issue of climate change. Australia and the USA have leaders in charge who, despite the mass of evidence, deny climate change. Canada and the EU talk a good game but are yet to make those hard choices that would have a real impact on carbon emissions (like taxing carbon). There is a gap which Africa could fill. With policies, like putting a tax on the carbon emissions content of imports. with actions and putting our money where our mouth is, such as investing in green energy instead of fossil fuels. And smart diplomacy – combining our voice on the global stage to help build consensus, shame others into action and forge constructive engagement with the issue of climate change. Not all global leadership issues require a big wallet, or a big gun, determination and concerted effort can make a difference. This is not just wishful thinking on my part, as the continent in line to bear the biggest impacts of climate change, utilising whatever influence we may have to get global action is effort well spent.
Climate opportunity
The 2018 winners of the Nobel prize for economics were Paul Romer and William Nordhaus. Both won for their work on economic growth over the long term and though they did not work together, the work they did does dovetail. Romer’s work looked at how innovation and new technologies come about, and he found that by investing in innovation (like funding research and development initiatives) you can boost economic growth in the wider economy. Nordhaus’ work looked at the connection between the economy and the environment and the impact of climate change on the economy and wider society. Their work comes together in a rather simple way, to combat climate change, to shift our societies and economies to low-carbon ones, will require innovation, new technologies and new policies. We need to invest in the knowledge and ideas that will combat and mitigate the effects of climate change. Most importantly what Nordhaus and Romer’s work suggests is that by investing in knowledge and ideas and implementing them you can generate long-term growth. Thus, by combating climate change we could actually stimulate economic growth.
For Africa this is an opportunity to do the right thing for current and future generations, and to lay the foundation for the development that we have been chasing for the last half century. Climate change could be a disaster for Africa, or it could be the thing that forces us to pursue a path that leads to long-term, sustainable growth. It will require us to be innovative with our policies, to rethink our ideas of development and industrialisation and to invest in the ingenuity, knowledge and innovation of African’s from all walks of life. Climate change will be one of the defining issues of the 21st century and Africa faces a choice, we can be a victim, or we can take the initiative, take responsibility and make it the springboard to a sustainable successful future.