Last week the triennial Forum On China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place Beijing. The summit came in the midst of growing questions (particularly from the western media, academia and governments) about China’s ‘debt diplomacy’ and pushback from China that the west is simply trying to paint a growing and beneficial relationship in a bad light. Debt diplomacy, simply put is the perception that China is using debt as a strategic tool to get strategic assets or trap developing nations desperate for investment (such as African states) in debt laden subservience to China (you can read this if you are interested in further exploring this line of thought). The summit also showed the growing disparity between the West’s diminishing clout in Africa and the growing influence and importance of China. While Angela Merkel, Theresa May who visited Africa, and Donald Trump (who was visited by President Kenyatta) made optimistic statements about being committed to investing in Africa, China pledged cold hard cash, 60 billion dollars to be exact, as the proof of its commitment.
As you will likely notice about both these narratives (debt diplomacy and China vs the West in Africa) is that they are driven by foreign (Chinese or western) concerns and interests. Africa is (worryingly like in the days of the cold war) a battleground for the interests and ambitions of two increasingly competitive power blocs. There is little concern given to the needs and aspirations of African’s, nor how the actions of China or the West can tie into development policy. I blame this on Africa’s leaders who have failed to properly articulate the concerns of African’s in the broader China-Africa relationship, and to strategically think about how to integrate and utilise Chinese investment and geopolitical policy into our own development policy. Secondly, in response to the renewed optimism at the money pledged by China, the devil is in the detail and we got very little of it, beyond speeches and headlines. Third, FOCAC did nothing about the image problem, of both African’s in China and the Chinese in Africa. While our leaders may talk about each other in glowing terms, how their respective peoples view each other and interact will define the relationship going into the future. Fourth, Africa’s debt is a problem and both Africa and China, if they are indeed sincere, need to come up with viable policies to ensure that Africa does not find itself in a debt trap again.
The recent FOCAC summit was notable just as much for what was missing as for what was said. The China-Africa relationship will be a defining feature of Africa in the 21st century, whether its positive will need African policy makers and political leaders to be more thoughtful about that relationship and the policies that actualise it.
1. Speak up Mr President
49 African heads of state made their way to Beijing for FOCAC, more than went to the last US-Africa summit or TICAD (Japans equivalent of FOCAC) symbolically this just how important China is to Africa. This is not surprising; China has invested and is committing to invest vast sums of money in Africa. In addition, China is offering cooperation and assistance in several areas such as security and combating poaching. While it is not surprising it is also worrying. Worrying because there is no clear articulation of the African position from individual African nations or from regional or continental bodies. What are African countries looking to get out of China, what are Africa’s nations visions of development, and what do we see China’s role in it being, and what we see as a mutually beneficial relationship. African presidents in various forms gave the usual platitudes about the importance of investment and infrastructure, the value of Chinese partnership and their commitment to economic development. There was no clear articulation of the African perspective and this is a problem, because it means that Chinese interests and concerns are driving the relationship and even if there is no malice involved, a one-sided relationship is still detrimental. Even if Africa is the junior partner, a sufficiently articulate, determined and smart junior partner can play a large role in defining a relationship. That is what was missing at FOCAC from Africa’s leaders, a clear conception of a balanced Africa-China relationship, not just an acceptance of a lopsided China-Africa dynamic. What that looks like is up for debate, (I gave my ideas In a previous post), but without a vision we are lost and ripe for exploitation.
2. The devil is in the details
60 billion dollars. That, amount slightly larger than the GDP of Kenya, will be the figure that defines FOCAC. That China has pledged 60 billion dollars of aid, concessional loans, credit lines, debt relief and grants to the African continent over the next 3 years, and that there will be no vanity projects paid for by that money. Beyond the, 60 billion there were also commitments around security assistance, climate change resilience, anti-poaching among others. However, as with any great promise the devil is in the details.
On the 60 billion dollars what’s needed is specifics of what China considers a concessional loan, what the conditions are for debt relief, the conditions for access to a credit line and the interest payment terms and periods for that credit and what, in the eyes of Beijing, constitutes a vanity project.
On the issue of security assistance. Is it training? More Chinese bases on the continent? Is it domestic surveillance and tracking technology or internet suppression tools (which should scare any African concerned with human rights).
Such, questions abound on a number of areas announced and committed to at FOCAC, unfortunately there are few policy papers, bi-lateral and multi-lateral agreements available to the public or being debated in parliaments around the continent. The devil is in the details and the devil cannot be seen. We have no idea what African leaders have committed in Beijing, thus there is no way for African’s to fully assess and appreciate the relationship with China.
3. The image problem – race, rhinos and chopsticks
How do the Chinese (the people not the government) view African’s? Judging by the depictions of African’s and black people in Chinese popular media such as the widely watched lunar new year’s show, or the art show which compared black people to animals. It is clear that race is an issue. It is an issue that doesn’t just manifest itself in China but in Africa as well. Around the continent there are numerous instances of African workers on Chinese projects being treated unfairly and even cruelly (as recently came to light in Kenya), building a perception among many African’s that the Chinese are exploitative and disrespectful, and at times this has boiled over into protest .
Stereotypes, unfortunate interactions and cultural misunderstanding are a rather prominent feature of China – Africa relations when you look beyond the high-level government get-togethers. Rather than avoid the issue, issue hasty apologies or outright deny or rationalise the issue of negative perceptions, racism, cultural misunderstandings etc. between ordinary Chinese and African’s, governments on both sides should be attempting to address it head on. This could involve to building contacts that go beyond high-level summits and infrastructure projects. Create spaces where people can interact (such as university exchange programs), where African’s and the Chinese can learn about each other, their diverse histories, cultures, their common experiences of western imperialism, and the different experiences of life across both Africa and China. FOCAC could be the start of a broader relationship between China and Africa that isn’t just about government to government bi-lateral agreements, but a broader relationship between two peoples which could go a long way to providing the basis for a long term mutually beneficial relationship that can go beyond sovereign debt.
4. The debt dilemma
Despite the Chinese contention that the debt diplomacy narrative is a western fiction meant to paint a negative picture of China to audiences around the world. The truth is that it is a problem. African countries are finding themselves once again straining under increasing debt pressure, and Chinese debt plays a significant role in that (links/graphics). For African nations there is clearly a need to make Chinese financing more sustainable, and unless China is as utterly cynical as former secretary of state Rex Tillerson suggested, then they too have an interest in coming up with ways to make Chinese financing more sustainable for African nations.
This is not something that must or should come from China. The first realisation that must happen in the finance ministries of Africa, is that China is not a benevolent Santa Claus, handing out wads of cash. Debts must eventually be repaid. Second, is coming up with a viable, mutually acceptable framework for financing going forward. This could include a set a of criteria that projects must meet before getting funding or the Chinese Foreign Ministry and EXIM bank working with the African Development Bank, Afriexim bank or the regional development banks to help African governments assess and structure loans to ensure their sustainability. These are just two ideas, fundamentally the point is that China and Africa are not locked into a debt trap path, and with some innovative policy the debt problem could be defused.
Rebalancing China-Africa
I have recently taken my own advice and been reading up Chinese history to gain a greater understanding of a truly extraordinary people. In doing so it is hard not to draw parallels between the past and the present. Around 2,100 years ago Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty established many of the routes and relationships that would come to known as the silk road. He did so with a mixture of diplomacy and conquest. At its height, China under the Han dynasty was trading with the Rome and Parthia to the west and numerous vassal states paid homage to the emperor. Today its President Xi (emperor in all but name) is, through a canny mix of diplomacy, ‘conquest by debt’ and the almighty dollar building a new silk road (it is no coincidence that the Chinese government itself drew explicit comparisons between the ancient silk road and the belt and road initiative). And it was not hard to see the (number) of African presidents in Beijing for FOCAC there to pay homage to the emperor of the rejuvenated 21st century middle kingdom.
China’s ambitions may not be as imperial as its history, however by looking at what was missing from FOCAC, it is clear that not only is the narrative of China in Africa skewed, the reality of the relationship is lopsided as well. This is not due to evil machinations from China. Rather it is due to a failure from African leaders to try and define that relationship beyond the headline figure of how much money Beijing is pledging to invest in the continent. Rebalancing that relationship will require African leaders to develop a vision of what a mutually beneficial relationship between their countries and China looks like. Doing that will require African leaders to develop a coherent vision of what their development goals and aspirations are based on those of their people (something I have talked about at greater length in this post). Once there is a vision it can be articulated, negotiated and integrated into a mutual and more equal relationship between the Peoples Republic of China and the many republics of Africa.
I do not subscribe to the western view that what we are seeing is a cynical 21st century imperialism from China. Neither do I ascribe to the view that China is a completely benign partner for Africa and is not pursuing its own strategic interests. What I am is an African, who wants to see our continent develop a mutually beneficial relationship with a remarkable nation, that is a world power and will likely be a superpower. Doing so requires being realistic about Africa’s relatively weak bargaining position, but it also demands vision and strategic thinking, which will form the basis of policies that will ensure that Africa does not find itself holding the short end of the stick again. I sincerely hope that African leaders and policymakers are not thinking about what happened in Beijing last week, but rather are thinking about what could happen at the next FOCAC in 2021.
Also published on Medium.