“We have been indebted for fifty, sixty years and even more. That means we have been led to compromise our people for fifty years and more.” – Thomas Sankara OAU July 1987
In 2005 developed countries wrote off billions in debt accumulated by Highly Indebted Poor Countries many of those in Africa. Debt relief gave many countries some breathing space from crushing debt and structural adjustment programs that saw public services decimated, and development expenditure minimised. Over a decade later much of the continent is walking into the same trap, accumulating foreign currency denominated debt with very vague ideas of how we are going to pay it back (figure 1)[1].
If we are not careful many African nations will find themselves where they were in the 1990s (some like Ghana already have); cutting spending and services to get IMF bailouts so that they can pay their debts.
As Thomas Sankara alluded to in 1987 this is no way to develop a continent, because in the world of international finance, banks and bondholders do not care about your people, they just want to be paid back on time. When it comes time to pay back this current binge of debt of what African nations are accumulating, just like in the 1980s and 1990s it will be the people who suffer, making the claims of leaders justifying this debt in the name of development a cruel joke.
African governments need to learn how to borrow smartly and use the money prudently. In my view African governments need to develop a framework through which borrowing is assessed; based on a set of principles that benefit Africans rather than burden them. Ending the African debt trap doesn’t mean ending African debt, it means making it work for us.
Debt: Bonds, Loans and Guarantees.
Governments in Africa borrow and accumulate debt in three primary ways. First, by issuing bonds, where investors lend money to the government by buying the bond who in turn promise to pay investors back in full, with regular interest payments[2]. Loans are straight forward, and work in the same way as a bank loan you would get. The main sources of government loans are international banks, multinational institutions like the IMF or World Bank and direct loans from individual states. Guarantees are slightly different, the government does not borrow directly but guarantees the debt of a company, usually a state-owned company, so that if it fails to repay its loans the government has to repay them.
Debt is not inherently a bad thing. It allows you to access funding that you do not otherwise have to invest in growth. For companies, debt is used to fund expansion, new machinery, hire more workers etc., to grow it is revenues. For countries debt can be used to fund investments in the country beyond what is available from tax revenue. It gives government the ability to invest in areas such as infrastructure, education, industrial or agricultural initiatives that give people and wider economy a higher capacity for growth and development. Put simply if you use debt to invest areas that create more value than the value of debt then you are fine, as the debt will pay itself back.
The problem with African debt
Debt becomes a problem when you have trouble paying it back. As your debt load increases you start borrowing money simply to pay for earlier debt, like using a credit card to pay off another credit card. Eventually you are forced to ask for help, going cap in hand to your creditors and asking for a bit more time or to the IMF for a bailout and as Africa discovered in the 80’s and 90’s, when that happens your fate is no longer in your hands.
In Africa bad debt falls into 3 broad categories. The first is corruption and misuse, where money borrowed is not even used in any form of gainful investment but essentially stolen. Mozambique was one of the success stories of the last few years with 7%+ growth rates even as it borrowed heavily (Figure 2).
Investors were not concerned with the debt levels because of Mozambique’s huge gas reserves. In 2013, Mozambique borrowed $850 million dollars to invest in a new tuna fishing fleet meant to jumpstart the countries fishing industry. However, Mozambique did not buy fishing boats, it bought gunboats, and shortly afterward it emerged that the government had been hiding an additional $1.4 billion of in loans whose use is shrouded in mystery. By 2016, Mozambique was unable to pay its loans and it defaulted on its debt. Mozambique is now in the arms of it is creditors and the IMF. When its gas fields start producing commercial gas in 2023, the money will go towards paying its loans first before it goes to the people of Mozambique.
The second way African debt tends to get out of hand is through investment in misguided projects, otherwise known as white elephants. These projects are often pursued for political reasons such as being in the part of a country the minister comes from, or connected people getting the contracts rather than development objectives being main goal. Today there is a building frenzy across the continent as governments invest in infrastructure to boost economic growth. This infrastructure is expensive, and governments have to borrow to fund it and it is a large part of the significant increase in debt on the continent over the last few years. If these roads, railways and dams are white elephants and provide little value to communities and countries they are in, Africans will be saddled with debt for vanity projects.
The third way in which governments accumulate debt is through providing guarantees to state-owned companies who take on debt for a variety of purposes. However, many state-owned enterprises in Africa are poorly run, with spotty oversight and take out debt for poorly conceived expansion plans or to fulfil poorly thought-out political directives. Eskom is South Africa’s publicly owned electricity monopoly, but it is in dire condition. Mismanagement, corruption, old power generation plants, expensive construction of new plants and a failure by the government to let it raise tariffs has put Eskom into a precarious position. Eskom has over the years borrowed to cover the gaps using government guarantees. According to figures provided by the power utility, total debt amounted to R359 Billion (29 Billion Dollars). This amount of debt, as the finance minister recently conceded is a threat to the South African economy. And Eskom is not the only state-owned enterprise in South Africa in trouble. Government guarantees to state owned enterprises stood at R467 billion at the end of 2015/16. Standard & Poor’s forecasts they will swell to over R500 billion by 2020 – 10% of South Africa’s current GDP, adding to South African debt that is already worth over 55% of GDP.
The problem with African debt is that too much of it is ill-considered, too much of it is stolen and most of it is not put into smart investments which will improve people’s lives and create value.
The trap closes – International control.
A key feature of international debt markets that puts the continent at a distinct disadvantage is who controls the debt. Creditors are not usually terribly concerned with what governments do with debt as long as it is paid back. Thus, when governments get into tight monetary circumstances, creditors usually demand that actions be taken to ensure that the debts are paid. The vehicle for this is usually the IMF, the multinational institution charged with securing global financial stability and debt defaults are bad for stability. When the IMF comes in to bail out a government it comes with conditions and as Africans found out in the 80s and 90s (and as Greeks are experiencing now) those conditions are painful. They usually involve a mix of cutting government spending and services, raising taxes and cutting subsidies, privatising public services, selling public assets, cutting the number of government employees and limits on development, spending and investment. With African governments piling up more and more debt we are getting closer to being subject to IMF conditionalities again, and the pain and protest seen in Greece will become a feature in Africa.
A Developmental Debt Policy Framework
The question becomes, how do we make sure any money we borrow is good debt. How do policy makers, politicians and the wider public decide what is worth borrowing money for? If Africa is to end the debt trap cycle it must change the way it decides to borrow, if African countries need to borrow money to fund development expenditure, then we must have something that guides that process. This requires a developmental debt policy framework, that is based on a set of principles that guides various actors as they decide whether the government should be borrowing money. The principles upon which responsible developmental debt would be based are simple. It must be sustainable, valuable, and accountable. These three principles would answer the key questions of why we are borrowing, how are we borrowing, can we afford it and will it create value for the country.
Sustainable
Put succinctly, sustainability in debt is about the ability of country to afford the debt. Can the money borrowed, both the principal sum and interest, be paid back by either normal revenues or by the revenues generated project being funded, without requiring extra burdensome measures, such as additional taxes or cutting of existing government services. Ensuring debt meets this requirement of sustainability will ensure that African states can afford the debt they take on.
Valuable
The principle of value is aimed at ensuring that the areas the debt funds have value to the nation. Value can come in two forms. First, value to people, improving the living conditions or opportunities of people. If it can be demonstrated that a policy, initiative, service or project that requires funding will demonstrably improve the lives of the public, it is not money wasted, as fundamentally development is about improving the living conditions and opportunities available to Africans. Secondly, value for money, which is simply, can the project, or initiative generate enough revenue to pay for the money being borrowed. These two forms of value do not limit the options for governments, rather they ensure that the money borrowed will go into something of importance. For instance, improved healthcare is key to improving the lives of millions around the continent and this requires that Africa train and deploy many more healthcare workers, as doctors, nurses, lab technicians etc., but this is an expensive undertaking. However, the training and deployment of a significant number of healthcare workers is not cheap. If the government can develop a program that trains and deploys healthcare workers in a way that benefits the majority of the population, borrowing to fund this can be justified. In terms of value for money this would be aimed primarily at infrastructure projects and guarantees to state owned enterprises, if it can be demonstrated that these projects (e.g. a new railway) or state corporation (e.g. an airline) can reliably pay for itself then borrowing to fund the investment can be justified.
Accountability
The principle of accountability is simple, the public finances must be public. Transparency in public financing creates accountability. Accountability in public debt transactions would require governments to open about what the borrowing is going to fund, the terms upon which the money is to be borrowed, how they plan to pay the debts back and tracking the use of the borrowed funds to ensure that unlike Mozambique’s gunboat tuna fleet, it goes where it is intended.
These three principles are interrelated. Debt that creates value is far more likely to be sustainable and being open and accountable about the terms on which the money is being borrowed allows for sustainability and value to be accurately and properly assessed. Having a developmental debt policy framework based on these three principles, would help ensure that Africa takes on debts that serve a developmental purpose. Furthermore, these principles can be developed into more detailed project and policy assessment frameworks, which policy makers, politicians, civil society and the wider public can use to access the government’s borrowing and hold it to account. Unlike the conditionalities imposed by the IMF or bond holders using these principles to guide African debt would be aimed at development not just paying back the money, they would give Africans agency over their own debt by requiring responsibility on the part of African policy makers. To end the cycle of African debt traps where development and vital services are sacrificed on the altar of fiscal responsibility, will require Africa to adopt policies that better guide how the continent borrows and what it uses for.
[1] IMF, Regional Economic Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Diversification, October 2017 https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2017/October/pdf/sreo1017.ashx?la=en
[2] http://guides.wsj.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond/